North Carolina finds itself at a crossroads.
After moving on from Hubert Davis, one of college basketball’s most storied programs is in the market for a new leader, and while the Tar Heels have long leaned on continuity and the “Carolina family,” it appears this hire could signal a shift in philosophy.
North Carolina next coach odds are strongly suggesting Billy Donovan will return to the collegiate ranks — especially with one of the other top names on the board shutting down that possibility today.
- UPDATE: Tommy Lloyd says he declined UNC job.
North Carolina next head coach odds
Billy Donovan opened as the early favorite, and has since emerged as the clear front-runner to take over in Chapel Hill.
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi.
Kalshi is a regulated financial exchange where you trade on real-world event outcomes. Instead of traditional odds, prices are listed as percentages (0–100%), representing the market’s estimated probability of an event occurring.
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Tommy Lloyd to stay at Arizona
Billy Donovan has long been the favorite to take over at UNC, but one of the biggest names also linked to the Tar Heels was Arizona coach Tommy Lloyd.
However, Lloyd announced during his press conference today — ahead of his Wildcats' Final Four game tomorrow — that he will not be leaving Tucson for the storied ACC job.
BREAKING: Tommy Lloyd just announced at his Friday press conference that he has turned down the North Carolina job and will be staying at Arizona. pic.twitter.com/bpwm7AZcuX
— Matt Norlander (@MattNorlander) April 3, 2026
Top candidates to replace Hubert Davis
Billy Donovan
Current Chicago Bulls head coach Billy Donovan sits firmly atop the odds board, and it’s easy to see why.
A two-time national champion at Florida (2006, 2007), Donovan has already proven he can win at the highest level in college basketball. He was also reportedly in the mix for the Kentucky job in 2024, signaling that a return to the NCAA isn’t off the table.
Donovan brings instant credibility, deep recruiting ties, and the kind of presence that can command a locker room from Day 1. If North Carolina is looking for a proven winner who can stabilize the program and compete immediately, he checks every box.
Grant McCasland
The current bench boss at Texas Tech, McCasland has led the Red Raiders to the NCAA Tournament in each of his three seasons, including reaching the Elite Eight last year and earning a five seed this year (despite losing star JT Toppin during the season).
Bringing toughness and defense to his teams, McCasland also led drastic turnarounds for mid-major programs Arkansas State and North Texas (including the Mean Green's first NCAA Tournament win), there is a lot of potential for what he could do with the resources at UNC.
Dusty May
Tommy Lloyd already turned down the job... but what about the coach Lloyd will face in the Final Four tomorrow?
Michigan head coach Dusty May is one of the hottest names in college basketball coaching, although he reiterated today that he is happy in his current spot, and declined to comment on the UNC job at all.
That said, May is an attractive option as he has proven he can succeed at a big program: After six seasons at Florida Atlantic (including two straight years of getting the Owls ranked in the AP Top 25), he has won consecutive Big Ten tournaments at Michigan, including a 31-3 record this year en route to earning a No. 1 seed.
North Carolina next head coach best bet
Billy Donovan (70¢)
North Carolina isn’t in a position to gamble on upside. This is a blue-blood program that needs stability, credibility, and immediate results, and Donovan checks every box. He’s won at the highest level in college, understands the pressure that comes with a job like this, and wouldn’t need a runway to compete.
There are valid questions about whether he’d leave the NBA, and the timing of it all, but if he’s seriously in the mix, this number still holds value given his experience and fit for a win-now program like UNC.
Donovan was trading at 30¢ (+233) when the market opened, but he's now moved to a 70% implied probability (-233) to land the job.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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