Baylor vs Texas Odds, Picks and Predictions: Bears Upend Longhorns in Low-Scoring Affair

With Texas and Oklahoma moving to the SEC next year, Saturday marks the final time the No. 9 ranked Baylor Bears and Texas Longhorns play a Big 12 Conference matchup at the Moody Center.

Baylor is in a four-way tie on the Big 12 leaderboard, coming off a four-point overtime away loss to Kansas State. Texas is 1-3 in conference action and hopes to end a two-game losing skid after suffering a home loss to UCF on Wednesday.

Join me as I break down this Big 12 Conference showdown and take a closer look at the college basketball odds with free college basketball picks for Baylor vs Texas on Saturday, January 20.

Baylor vs Texas best odds

Baylor vs Texas picks and predictions

Saturday marks the 261st meeting between the two Lone Star State rivals. Texas holds a 164-97 edge, but Baylor is 8-2 over their last 10 matchups.

Both programs are coming off games where they blew large leads. Baylor blew an eight-point lead before losing in overtime Tuesday night at Kansas State. Texas blew a 15-point lead with 14:30 remaining in the second half in their Wednesday night home loss by six to UCF.

For Texas to have a chance at beating Baylor, they must bring the defense that begins with the swipes and other forced turnovers the Longhorns turn into 18.5 points per tilt. According to ShotQuality, Texas allows the 42nd-fewest triple attempts per contest and a paltry 28% shooting against the Longhorns at home from downtown. Baylor drains the second-highest three-point shooting percentage nationally, but that number dips from 41.6% to 35.9% in the visitors' jersey, and there’s the edge, which is why I believe this game will end under the total. 

If the triples don’t fall, and it will be tough to get anything going at Texas from downtown, the Bears will have to rely on its above-average defense. 

Baylor leads with the swipes that turn into nearly 18 points per game, limiting teams to 29% shooting from downtown and 50% from inside the arc. They meet a Longhorns offense that sometimes has turnover issues and shoots far too many midrange jumpers but has four players scoring in double figures that are terrific shooters from everywhere.

The tempo should also lead to a low-scoring affair; these programs play a below-average tempo, take their time shooting the basketball, and, more importantly, force their opponents to shoot late in the clock. 

Texas needs a victory. They are a season removed from an Elite Eight appearance, and if they don’t start winning games, they could miss the NCAA Tournament. Luckily for them, Baylor doesn’t bring the same offensive heat away from Waco, and Texas has the type of three-point defense at home that a struggling shooting team doesn’t want to meet in their own gym. This game has all the ingredients for a low-scoring war, so the Under is my best bet.

My best bet: Under 149 (-110 at DraftKings)

Baylor vs Texas same-game parlay

Under 149

Baylor +1

+246 at DraftKings

Texas doesn’t win a high-scoring game with Baylor. The Longhorns' three-point defense is extremely good at home, and the slow tempo combined with a good Baylor defense leads me to believe this one stays Under the total. The Bears are 1-1-0 ATS as the away team, while the Longhorns are 3-8-0 ATS at home and have failed to cover at home in four of their last five.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Baylor vs Texas spread and Over/Under analysis

I was surprised FanDuel opened as a -1.5 favorite, considering DraftKings and PointsBet opened Texas -1. That is mostly because Baylor’s much-heralded freshman guard, Ja’Kobe Walter, has struggled to find his stroke from anywhere on the court away from Waco.

Walker has striking home/away shooting splits but is also the Bears' leading scorer. He went 0-5 from downtown against Kansas State, lowering his away long-distance shooting to 34.5% in the visitors' uniform. He also went 3-11 from the field, K-State inched back into the game partially because of the bricks and pulled off the upset in overtime.

Texas must win this game, or they have an uphill battle to make the NCAA Tournament. Texas has a winning record at home but averages 13.2 turnovers per home game and I believe Baylor can and will use those miscues to their advantage.

That’s why I’m leaning heavily toward Baylor notching a straight-up win Saturday. All the pressure is on Texas; they are likely in a must-win situation, while the Bears would only like to win. Texas might be 9-2 at home, but the Bears are the better basketball team and will win this game if Walker finds his shot. 

Baylor vs Texas betting trend to know

Baylor has hit the Game Total Under in 7 of their last 12 away games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Baylor vs. Texas.

Baylor vs Texas game info

Baylor vs Texas key injuries

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