Baylor vs Florida Odds, Picks and Predictions: Gators Chomp the Total

When Baylor and Florida meet in the NIT Tip-Off Final, it will be the second actual test of each of their seasons. Baylor faced off against Auburn to open the season and made a furious second-half comeback to get the win. Since then, they've continued to thrive and will enter this matchup off a convincing win against Oregon State. Florida's only loss of the season came against Virginia by three points.

It's hard to say it was a fair reflection of the Gators, though, as point guard Zyon Pullin was unavailable. Although he's come off the bench this season, he's a significant player for the Gators as he represents the only natural point guard on the roster. Florida took care of Pittsburgh in a 15-point win to get here.

What's the best bet in this matchup? I break down the college basketball odds and give you my best free college basketball picks and predictions for Baylor vs. Florida on Friday, November 24. 

Baylor vs Florida best odds

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Baylor vs Florida picks and predictions

It's early, but Scott Drew's Baylor Bears team has flown on the radar early this season. The game-to-game market has been short on them, and I've also seen some value from a futures perspective — one of the reasons why is just how good their offense can be. Oregon State Head Coach Wayne Tinkle tasted it two nights ago and agreed.

"It's hard to get multiple stops against them," Tinkle said of Baylor. "They're so good at spacing the floor. They have guys who can go downhill at the rim, and they have shooters licking their chops at the wings."

Baylor's offense will enter this matchup averaging 1.19 points per possession. That's good for the 10th-best in basketball, which is an excellent accomplishment, considering that the Bears schedule hasn't been the easiest. I lean to Baylor in this spot, but there's a better bet on the board. I projected an 83 to 79 final score, which means there's only one side to make my best bet here: Over 157.5.

I will get to the Bears' offensive advantages in a second, but let's talk about the Florida Gators first. This team has rapidly improved with a talented coach and a great group of guards. They've impressed me that I placed a National Championship future on them two weeks ago at +8,000 on the March Madness odds board. Its offense has been barely a step behind Baylor's to start the year, and as it enters this matchup, it is averaging 1.14 points per possession. Today, there are a few places where the Gators should be able to get some easy scores.

Baylor's defense has not looked like a typical no-middle defense this season. It has allowed opponents to get to the rim, and it's defended the pick-and-roll relatively poorly, ranking in the 60th percentile of basketball against it. I've already hit on the talented Florida guards, but I like them to be able to get downhill here. The Gators have thrived getting to the basket with a Top 10 rim rate. In addition, Riley Krugel has been a great pick-and-roll scorer, averaging 1.04 points per possession on the sets. Iona transfer Walter Clayton Jr. is just a short distance beyond him, too, and he appears to be in good form coming off a 28-point game against Pittsburgh. 

I'm to the point with Baylor, where I assume it scores against everyone. Of course, a poor shooting night will come at some point for the Bears, but this is one of the country's best offenses. Florida has its defensive flaws, too, which Baylor can easily expose. 

Florida's spot-up defense has been good this season, but Baylor's spot-up offense has been better. It has an insane four players that rank in the Top 25% of points per possession on spot-up sets. Ja' Kobe Walter leads that pack. Regression will come, but for now, Walter is shooting like one of the best in the country at 1.58 points per possession. Alongside that, Florida's defense has defended screening actions pretty poorly. I'll trust Drew to execute a game plan to attack that with Walter and Jayden Nunn as primary options.

This total is high, but it shouldn't scare you away. Given the expected pace, we could come close to 80 possessions in this matchup, which is a track meet. We'll happily take an Over with that in mind and two Top 25 KenPom offenses. 

My best bet: Over 157.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

Baylor vs Florida same-game parlay

Over 157.5

Ja'Kobe Walter Over 16.5 points

Riley Kugel Over 12.5 points

+396 at FanDuel

Our same-game parlay will feature our best bet of Over 157.5. In this instance, we'll be pairing it with two-player props.

I talked about Ja'Kobe Walter above, but he's been unbelievable to start this season and has exceeded this number in back-to-back games. We're paying a bit of a premium here, but it's worth paying, given the matchup and how hot he's been. 

To finish this off, we will back Kugel to bounce back here. He's one of the better scorers on the Florida roster at the rim, and he's coming off an uncharacteristic poor shooting performance. He usually doesn't have two bad games in a row. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Baylor vs Florida spread and Over/Under analysis

This spread feels right on. I have no interest in placing a wager here.

Florida may have more paths to victory here because it generates more shots at the rim. Baylor has been so poor there to begin the season, making this matchup a genuine concern. That said, Baylor has been shooting remarkably well over the past three games, which makes it difficult to stand in their way. It's doubtful that its torrid pace will continue, but with such a small data size, it's also hard to say when the Bears will find their level or precisely what that level is. All of that culminates in making this a pass for me, as there are too many unknowns. If forced to have a lean, I'd be on the Gators, though. 

As for the total, I'm playin the Over tonight. 

These two teams have played twice over the last five years, and both games have gone Over. In addition, the two teams are a combined 7-1 to the Over in this short season. Both offenses are in the elite category of college basketball, and both should be able to find some easy baskets in a high-tempo matchup.

Baylor vs Florida betting trend to know

Baylor has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 20 of their last 32 games (+6.05 Units / 16% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Baylor vs. Florida.

Baylor vs Florida game info

Baylor vs Florida key injuries

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