Are Michigan fans and bettors tired of staying up late on work nights for Wolverine games yet?
The Michigan Wolverines will take on the Arizona Wildcats in the finals of the Roman Main Event. Arizona made the finals with an overtime win over Wichita State, 82-78 while Michigan dominated UNLV with a 74-61 win in its first game of the tournament.
Although Arizona is undefeated to start the year, Michigan is the favorite in this game by a couple of possessions, even at 3-1. The Wildcats were busy blowing out opponents to start the year but the moment they took on a better opponent, things got harder. The same can absolutely be said for Michigan, as it lost to Seton Hall, 67-65. However, Seton Hall is clearly the better team in comparison to Wichita State.
Will being on the West coast help Arizona prepare for Michigan? Here are our picks and predictions between the Villanova Wildcats and Michigan Wolverines.
Arizona vs Michigan odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
The Michigan Wolverines opened as a 4.5-point favorite but have already been bet down to 4-point favorites. The total, however, has stayed steady at 142.5 since opening. Some outlets are starting to drop to 142 as we speak though, so make sure to shop around! Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.
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Arizona vs Michigan predictions
Predictions made on 11/21/2021 at 9:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Arizona vs Michigan game info
• Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV
• Date: Sunday, November 21, 2021
• Tip-off: 9:30 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN
Arizona at Michigan betting preview
Injuries
Arizona: No injuries to report.
Michigan: Zeb Jackson G (Out).
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Wildcats are 1-8 ATS in their last nine neutral site games. Find more NCAA betting trends for Arizona vs. Michigan.
Arizona vs Michigan picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Spread analysis
The Arizona Wildcats won each of their first three games by 29 or more points. The offense had been lights out and the defense was playing well.
Then Arizona played Wichita State and struggled a bit with an 82-78 win in overtime. Arizona led for most of the game but after scoring just 29 points in the second half, the Wildcats had to claw out a victory in overtime.
The Wildcats offense is averaging 91 points per game. However, analytically, Arizona hasn’t been all that offensively. It’s shooting a 55.4 percent effective field goal percentage and just 33.9 percent from long range on the year. The Wildcats are, however, getting to the line at an extremely high rate but still only knocking down 70.7 percent of those freebies.
If Arizona is going to win this game, it’s going to have to dominate inside. The Wildcats are shooting 58.9 percent from inside and grabbing 36.7 percent offensive rebounds. They’ve been an aggressive team to start the year and are going up against a Michigan defense that doesn’t force a whole lot of turnovers.
Despite the limited turnovers, Michigan has held opponents to an 86.7 percent defensive efficiency, holding teams to 26 percent from downtown.
On the other hand, Arizona’s been very solid on the defensive end, holding opponents to an effective field goal percentage of 34.5 percent. Opponents are literally shooting 31.1 percent inside the arc this season against Arizona. Michigan won’t go through the same troubles as teams like UT Rio Grande did against Arizona. Therefore, that number won’t be nearly as low once Arizona is finished playing Michigan. Still, it’s something to look out for.
This game will come down to who can get to the line more frequently and which team wins the battle on the boards.
The numbers state that that team will be Michigan.
Prediction: Michigan -4 (-110)
Over/Under analysis
This is a game between two of the Top 20 teams in defensive adjusted efficiency. Arizona is holding opponents to a 34.5 percent effective field goal percentage while allowing teams to shoot just 31.1 percent from inside and 26.7 percent from long range.
Meanwhile, the Wolverines are also holding teams to just 26 percent from the floor and 44.7 percent from inside. They’re not fouling as much as Arizona either.
It gets tricky here, especially knowing that Arizona likes to run an up-tempo offense. But if I’m getting a number above 140 with two top 25 teams in defensive efficiency, I’ll take that Under.
Prediction: Under 142.5 (-110)
Best bet
Inside, it’s going to be a battle between Christian Koloko, a 7-foot-1 center at Arizona, and Hunter Dickinson, the 7-foot-1 center for Michigan. Koloko is averaging just 24 minutes but has four blocks per game this season along with 7.8 rebounds.
Dickinson is averaging eight rebounds per game along with one block per game. Inside, that’s going to be a fun battle.
And again, knowing both teams have been great defensively to start the season, despite knowing Arizona is an up-tempo offense, this number just seems way too high for two premier defenses going at it on a back-to-back.
Pick: Under 142.5 (-110)
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