The Tennessee Volunteers host the Alabama Crimson Tide in a top-25 SEC showdown between two teams fighting for NCAA Tournament seeding.
High stakes mean physical play, and that's music to the ears of Jaylen Carey, who is in a good position to expose a big weakness of the Tide.
My Alabama vs.Tennessee predictions and college basketball picks tell you why I like him to rack up the boards on Saturday, February 28.
Alabama vs Tennessee prediction
Alabama vs Tennessee best bet: Jaylen Carey over 7.5 rebounds (+102)
The Tennessee Volunteers are the best offensive rebounding team in the country, while the Alabama Crimson Tide ranks near the bottom of the sport in offensive rebounding allowed.
Jaylen Carey leads the Vols with 18% offensive rebound rate and has grabbed 10+ boards four times in his last eight games, including 10 against Missouri on Tuesday.
The Tide's interior defense is soft, ranking below average against rim attacks, suggesting they can be overpowered on the glass by a more physical team.
Carey is a bully on the glass who feasts on exactly this kind of matchup. I'd play this to 8.5.
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Alabama vs Tennessee same-game parlay
The Vols have been a confounding team this season, but this is a good spot to see some vintage Tennessee.
Its defense is built to slow down the Tide. They are strong in three careers defensively against the Alabama attack. Most importantly, they have been one of the best transition defenses in the country, which is key against a pace-oriented team like this.
I took Tennessee to grab the win in a lower-scoring affair.
Alabama vs Tennessee SGP
- Jaylen Carey over 7.5 rebounds
- Tennessee moneyline
- Under 164.5
Our beyond the arc SGP: Big Boy Pants!
My longshot doubles down on the best-bet thesis, with Nate Ament also exceeding his rebounds total.
If the Under hits, it means more contested shots and more long rebounds for both Carey and Ament to chase. Stacking the board dominance makes this a thematic longshot.
Alabama vs Tennessee SGP
- Jaylen Carey Over 7.5 rebounds
- Tennessee moneyline
- Under 164.5
- Nate Ament Over 7.5 rebounds
Alabama vs Tennessee odds
- Spread: Alabama +6 (-110) | Tennessee -6 (-110)
- Moneyline: Alabama +165 | Tennessee -190
- Over/Under: Over 163 (-110) | Under 163 (-110)
Alabama vs Tennessee betting trend to know
Tennessee has hit the 1H moneyline in 16 of its last 17 games at home (+12.50 Units / 1% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Alabama vs. Tennessee.
How to watch Alabama vs Tennessee
| Location | Food City Center, Knoxville, TN |
| Date | Saturday, February 28, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 6:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Alabama vs Tennessee key injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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