Alabama vs Mississippi State Odds, Picks and Predictions: Bulldogs Poor Shooting Won’t Keep Up With Tide

The opening game of the quarterfinal round of the 2023 SEC Tournament will see the Mississippi State Bulldogs face off with the top-seeded Alabama Crimson Tide at Bridgestone Arena on Friday afternoon. 

Mississippi State got a huge win on Thursday over the Florida Gators, prevailing 69-68 in overtime to advance to the next round. Meanwhile, Alabama finished the regular season atop the SEC at 26-5 overall and swept the Bulldogs in the regular season.

Will Mississippi State ride its momentum to avenge two regular season losses to Alabama? Find out in our college basketball picks and predictions for Alabama vs. Mississippi State on March 10.

Alabama vs Mississippi State best odds

Alabama vs Mississippi State picks and predictions

Mississippi State did just enough in its first game in Nashville to hold off Florida in overtime. The Bulldogs were leading by 10 points at halftime and up by as much as seven points in overtime, yet they still needed a late basket to pull it out. Both teams combined to shoot 10/49 from 3-point land and 27/45 from the charity stripe.

This will spell trouble for Mississippi State against one of the best 3-point defenses in the country. Alabama holds its opponents to shoot only 28.4% from downtown, which ranks third in the nation. The Tide are also the best rebounding team in the country, pulling down 44.3 boards per game.

The Bulldogs dominated the offensive glass against the Gators with 18 offensive rebounds, but they will have a tougher task against Bama. No opponent has gotten double-digit offensive boards against the Crimson Tide in their last six games, and the Bulldogs never reached 10 in their two matchups this season.

I don't see Mississippi State putting up a big number on the scoreboard, as the Bulldogs will need to rely heavily on their defense and hope for a poor shooting performance from the Tide. That happened in the second matchup of the season, where Alabama shot 5/28 from downtown but still won the game by three points.

Alabama has shot the ball well this season in its neutral site games and I expect to see the Tide bounce back from a poor performance last out. The SEC powerhouse will likely hit at least eight threes in this game and should shut down the Bulldogs from getting points down low.

I like Alabama to win and cover here to move on to Saturday's semifinals.

My best bet: Alabama -6 (-110 at bet365)

Alabama vs Mississippi State spread analysis

Alabama is no stranger to big-time games, as they went 2-2 in neutral site games this season with losses to UConn and Gonzaga and wins over Michigan State and UNC. The Tide also boast a 9-3 record in true road games, including beating Houston and this Mississippi State squad.

Alabama will need to key in on Tolu Smith for the Bulldogs, who just put up 28 points, 12 rebounds, and three steals in Thursday’s win over Florida. Without another huge game from Smith, I don't like Mississippi State’s chances.

The Bulldogs are 6-13-1 against the spread in their last 20 games following an ATS loss and are also 0-3-1 ATS in their last four neutral site games. Additionally, the Crimson Tide are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 Friday games and the favorite is 10-4-1 ATS in the last 15 meetings between these two programs.

This would take a dreadful shooting performance from the Crimson Tide to not get this win and cover. 

Alabama vs Mississippi State Over/Under analysis

The Bulldogs have played in four consecutive Overs, and I don't expect that trend to end on Friday. 

The Over is 4-1 in the Bulldogs' last five games following a straight-up win and is also 4-0 in the Crimson Tide's last five games overall. I don't think that we'll see another poor offensive performance from Alabama. While it may be difficult for Mississippi State to score, they will not be completely shut down and the total is low enough.

I would lean towards the Over here.

Alabama vs Mississippi State betting trend to know

The Ove is 4-0 in the Bulldogs' last four overall. Find more college basketball betting trends for Alabama vs. Mississippi State.

Alabama vs Mississippi State game info

Alabama vs Mississippi State key injuries

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