It's the penultimate final foray of buy games for the Missouri Tigers when it welcomes the Alabama State Hornets to town.
It’s a welcome sight for the Tigers after they suffered a neutral-site loss to rival Kansas and at Notre Dame. Alabama State has gotten off to a rocky start to the season after an NCAA Tournament appearance last year. They’ll enter this one with a 3-6 record.
I break down the matchup in my Missouri vs. Alabama State predictions and college basketball picks for tonight's game.
Alabama State vs Missouri prediction
Alabama State vs Missouri best bet: Missouri first half -14.5 (-110)
This is a nice spot for the Missouri Tigers. This Alabama State Hornets offense is heavily dependent on two things: rim attacks and attack + kicks. In general, that’s problematic for any non-P5 team playing one from the SEC, but it’s especially an issue against this Missouri team.
From a points per possession allowed perspective, the Tigers rank in the 70th percentile nationally in rim rate denial and even better on attack and kicks. That doesn’t even account for the massive athleticism advantage they’ll have in this matchup, either.
On the other end, this is a nightmare for Alabama State’s defense. They’re already leaking an astronomical 1.2 points per possession in transition and giving up a huge share of shots there.
Missouri’s offense is one of the most transition-tilted, high-efficiency groups in the country. It’s what they want to do, and they're quite good at it. I expect head coach Dennis Gates will really let them run early in this one because you’re getting 20 quality minutes from the main horses before things get weird with the bench.
The full game spread of 27.5 invites some late-game nonsense: emptied benches, tempo dying once Missouri is up 20+, and a possible backdoor from a freely-chucking underdog. I’d rather isolate Missouri’s early punch and lay the 14.5 in the first half. I projected it closer to 17.
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Alabama State vs Missouri same-game parlay
The full-game Over is naturally correlated with our view on the game. I’ll pair it with our best bet for this SGP.
I was slightly off market with my projection of 158, but the logic follows: Missouri gets whatever it wants in transition throughout much of the game, while its elite rim protection is strong early, it falls off as the Tigers build a lead, allowing ASU to do its part in cashing this Over.
Alabama State vs Missouri SGP
- Missouri first half -15.5
- Over 157
Alabama State vs Missouri odds
- Spread: Alabama State +27.5 | Missouri -27.5
- Moneyline: Alabama State +2800 | Missouri -20000
- Over/Under: Over 157 | Under 157
Alabama State vs Missouri betting trend to know
Missouri has cashed its team total Over in 21 of its last 35 games for +5.84 units and a 14% ROI. Find more college basketball betting trends for Alabama State vs. Missouri.
How to watch Alabama State vs Missouri
| Location | Mizzou Arena, Columbia, MO |
| Date | Thursday, December 11, 2025 |
| Tip-off | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | SECN+ |
Alabama State vs Missouri key injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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