The Houston Rockets have scratched and clawed their way out of a 1-3 series hole vs. the Golden State Warriors, bringing Game 7 of this Western Conference quarterfinal to the Toyota Center tonight.
Houston has the momentum and the nod from oddsmakers, set as short home favorites Sunday. I go past the point spread and look into the Warriors vs. Rockets props for this “win or go home” finale.
Here are my best NBA picks for Warriors vs. Rockets on May 4.
Best Warriors vs Rockets props
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Green o14.5 pts (-125) - VanVleet u17.5 pts (-115)
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Curry o26.5 pts (-120)
Warriors vs Rockets player props for May 4
Jalen Green Over 14.5 points (-125 at bet365)
If there ever was a time for Jalen Green to snap out of his postseason funk, Sunday would be the spot.
The Houston Rockets’ shooting guard has been mired in a nasty skid this series. Outside of a 38-point eruption in Game 2, Green has struggled to get above double-figures and has gotten less and less involved in the offense in recent games.
After firing up 40 shots in the first two games versus the Golden State Warriors, Green has taken a total of just 38 field goal attempts the past four outings. He’s made only 13 of those looks and has averaged just 10 points in that span.
"I don't think I've played well at all, for real, I had one game at the pretty good crib, but overall, I haven't been myself,” Green told reporters after scoring 12 points in Game 6. “But that's okay. First-time experience, gotta get back to being aggressive and stop overthinking.”
In the regular season, Green put 21 points per game for Houston and Game 7 player projections aren’t bailing on the third-year guard – even if the oddsmakers have. Books opened Green’s scoring prop as low as 13.5 points O/U with most books now dealing 14.5 O/U.
His scoring forecasts range from 18.7 to 21.6 points, and even tempering those numbers for Green’s recent struggles, you end up with a surplus of points against this drastic swing in scoring total (his Game 1 number was 19.5 O/U).
Fred VanVleet Under 17.5 points (-115 at bet365)
The Rockets wouldn’t be here if it wasn’t for the efforts of Fred VanVleet. The seasoned guard is no stranger to the pressure of the playoffs and has carried this team in recent games.
VanVleet has scored 25, 26, and 29 points the past three games after putting up a collective 34 points in the opening three contests of the series. Those explosions have hiked his scoring prop from a total of 13.5 O/U in Game 1 to a high of 18.5 points for Game 7.
Books that did show an 18.5 O/U took money on the Under and the early action has aggressively bought back VanVleet’s scoring efforts, dropping the total as low as 16.5 points for tonight.
VanVleet will catch the ire of the Warriors’ defense and I expect Green to have a better showing for Houston after struggling in this series. Projections aren’t going too crazy on FVV’s output for Game 7 either, ranging from 13.8 to 18.3 with my number coming out to just north of 16 points.
Taking the Under on a player as hot as VanVleet is never a fun bet to sit through, but his scoring market seems to be coming back around for a guy who averaged only 14 points on the season.
Stephen Curry Over 26.5 points (-120 at bet365)
Stephen Curry had 29 points in Game 6 in what was arguably a bad outing for the Warriors’ superstar guard.
He finished 9-for-23 from the field but made six 3-pointers and added five free throws in the loss. Curry’s output has been up-and-down in this series, as he battles a thumb injury and a Rockets defense that has been very physical with the future Hall of Famer.
Curry is averaging just over 24 points on less than 47% shooting versus Houston, but has been able to put up bigger scores, with 29, 31, and 36-point performances in this series.
Player projections are divided on just how aggressive Steph will be tonight, ranging from 24.9 to 27.9 points. The point prop market isn’t as shy, with sharper books jumping from 26.5 to 27.5 points O/U.
When it comes to a guy like Curry, you give him the benefit of the doubt.
Not only did he score 29 points in a so-so Game 6 effort, but he’s historically risen to the occasion in Game 7 scenarios. He averages 32.6 points in those crucial contests for his career and the last time he played in a Game 7, he dropped 50 points in a win over Sacramento in 2023.
“How we start the game is going to matter. It’s going to be a long 48 minutes,” Curry said of tonight’s Game 7 showdown on the road. “You got to just embrace it, have fun with it, show up with kind of a killer instinct.”
Curry is preaching aggressiveness to his team ahead of this trip to Houston. He’ll have the minutes and touches to easy push past this point total.
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