A grueling first half of foul trouble limited Karl-Anthony Towns' impact in Game 4 of the NBA Finals
But with everything on the line in tonight's Knicks vs. Spurs predictions, my expert projections favor a disciplined bounce-back for KAT in Game 5.
Look for the 7-foot star to anchor the interior and blow past his current prop totals as he tries to secure a championship for the Knicks, who are 5.5-point underdogs.
Find out why in my NBA picks for Saturday, June 13, and don't miss tip-off at 8:30 p.m. ET on ABC.
For more on this game, read Douglas Farmer's Knicks vs. Spurs props.
- UPDATE: Added prediction for who will win & a +900 SGP!
Knicks vs Spurs Game 5 prediction
Who will win Knicks vs Spurs Game 5?
Spurs: This series is much tighter than the 3-1 count would lead you to believe. San Antonio goes home to recover from the massive gut punch that was another blown lead, but has an extra day between games to rest up and shake off the stink of that 29-point implosion. So many little things have bounced New York’s way in this series – and in the playoffs overall – that there has to be regression. A letdown spot after a magical night in MSG and traveling to Texas could allow reality to bubble to the surface. I’ll side with the oddsmakers and say San Antonio survives Game 5.
Knicks vs Spurs best bet: Karl-Anthony Towns Over 17.5 points (+100)
Karl-Anthony Towns sat for most of the first half of Game 4 but was ready to roll in the second half, playing 18 of 24 minutes.
His offense, however, was understandably spotty, and much like Game 3, Towns couldn’t get into a rhythm. Mike Brown’s plan for Game 4 was to get Towns going early, but that went out the window.
I’m not backing off KAT in Game 5. He salvaged 13 points Wednesday, not too short of his total of 17.5, considering the circumstances.
Projections sit as high as 21+ with my number at 18.7 points, which should have Over 17.5 listed at -118.
COVERS INTEL: Towns’ usage was at 23.5% in his limited time in the first half of Game 4, in which he scored six points in just eight minutes. That’s higher than his average usage of 19.9% in the first two games in San Antonio, when KAT finished with 18 and 21 points.
Knicks vs Spurs Game 5 same-game parlay
The San Antonio Spurs’ inexperience has them backed into a 3-1 hole, but that youth could also be a strength in this spot. San Antonio is just young and dumb enough to shake Game 4.
The extended two-day break also works in their favor, especially when it comes to recharging Victor Wembanyama’s draining batteries. He looked tired and passive in the second half on Wednesday.
The Spurs have had the New York Knicks by the throat several times in the series and have shown resiliency enough in the playoffs, going 7-2 SU and ATS off a loss. They might not cover a bigger number, but can stay alive in Game 5.
Towns was passive in Game 3 and then got two quick whistles to ice his offense in Game 4. Mike Brown wants to run his offense through KAT, and we’ll see that in Game 5... as long as the refs don’t get trigger-happy.
Towns looked great in San Antonio in the opening two games, and his scoring prop is providing great value, with projections calling for 21+ points on Saturday.
Much like KAT, Stephon Castle got into foul trouble and couldn’t find his stroke in Game 4, shooting just 2-for-7 from the field. He kept attacking and knocked down all eight of his free-throw attempts.
Castle finished with 13 points in just 26 minutes — tying his second-lowest action in the postseason. Game 5 models sit as high as 19 points from the Spurs guard, given his standard floor time.
Knicks vs Spurs SGP
- Spurs moneyline
- Karl-Anthony Towns Over 17.5 points
- Stephon Castle Over 16.5 points
Our "from downtown" SGP: Luck Number Seven (Footers)
Game 5 could be a battle of the bigs. Karl-Anthony Towns was a beast on the boards in the second half of Game 4, and his Game 5 forecasts call for as many 21+ and 14+ rebounds.
Victor Wembanyama carries the hopes of Texas basketball fans Saturday. The two days of downtime will help “The Alien” rest up, with his projections as high as 29 points.
Wembanyama will be contesting everything – from 3-pointers to layups. Expect an incredible two-way effort from him with the season on the line.
Knicks vs Spurs SGP
- Victor Wembanyama Over 27.5 points
- Victor Wembanyama Over 3.5 blocks
- Karl-Anthony Towns Over 17.5 points
- Karl-Anthony Towns Over 11.5 rebounds
Knicks vs Spurs odds for Game 5
- Spread: New York +5.5 (-110) | San Antonio -5.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: New York +170 | San Antonio -205
- Over/Under: Over 216.5 (-110) | Under 216.5 (-110)
Knicks vs Spurs betting trend to know
The Under is 1-3 in the 2026 NBA Finals heading into Game 5, with the total sitting at 216.5 O/U. The Under has been the correct side of the total, with finals games going 45-69 O/U since the 2005-06 season (60.5%). Find more NBA betting trends for Knicks vs. Spurs.
How to watch Knicks vs Spurs Game 5
| Location | Frost Bank Center, San Antonio, TX |
| Date | Saturday, June 13, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ABC |
Knicks vs Spurs latest injuries
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