Warriors vs Grizzlies Picks and Predictions: No Keeping Up With Jones Tonight

Tyus Jones has excelled in Ja Morant's absence again, and against a guard-heavy Warriors lineup that's been struggling on defense and on the road, our NBA picks feel he should remind us all again who the NBA's best backup PG is.

Last Updated: Mar 18, 2023 1:33 PM ET Read Time: 4 min
Tyus Jones Memphis Grizzlies
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The Golden State Warriors’ miserable road form has hit rock bottom after 10 straight losses away from Chase Center – and they can be sure of a hostile reception at FedExForum tonight as they renew their rivalry with the Memphis Grizzlies.

Golden State’s 7-28 road record is among the most perplexing NBA storylines this year and last night’s 127-119 loss in Atlanta, despite 31 points from Steph Curry, was the latest setback for the defending champs.

The Grizzlies are dealing with their own challenges with Ja Morant sidelined among others, but they fought back from a 29-point hole last night to beat the San Antonio Spurs in overtime.

Get the lowdown on tonight’s matchup in our free Warriors vs. Grizzlies NBA picks and predictions for Saturday, March 18.

Warriors vs Grizzlies best odds

Warriors vs Grizzlies picks and predictions

With the Morant situation continuing to play out, the Grizzlies’ decision to give Tyus Jones a two-year, $30M deal last summer is looking like a shrewd one. That’s a big number for a backup point guard and Jones has proven he’s overqualified for that role — but fast forward to March and his steady play is keeping Memphis afloat with the playoffs on the horizon.

The Grizzlies needed every bit of Jones’s production last night, with the 26-year-old grabbing his first career triple-double in the OT win over the Spurs. He ended up with 20 points on 7-for-15 shooting, including three triples.  

I expect Jones to have another big night here against a Warriors defense that’s struggled mightily on the road. During the Warriors’ 10-game road losing run, they’ve only held an opponent under 120 points twice, and Jones should have the green light to make Curry work on the defensive end.

The Grizzlies blew out the Warriors 131-110 nine days ago, and Jones was front and center in that win, finishing with 22 points and 11 assists. Against guard-heavy Golden State line-ups, he should see a small spike in his minutes and his calm-headed approach is the ideal fit for a matchup that’ll have a real edge to it.

I’m taking the Over on Jones’ points + assists tonight in a game that the hosts will surely treat like a playoff game in front of a frenzied FedExForum crowd.

My best bet: Tyus Jones Over 23.5 Points + Assists (-105)

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Warriors vs Grizzlies spread analysis

Even with Morant out, the Grizzlies’ strong home form, combined with the Warriors’ miserable run on the road, means that Memphis is a 2.5-point favorite tonight, and the Grizzlies have covered the spread in four of their last five games after an ATS loss. They’ve emerged from a hugely difficult start to March and have picked up four wins from their last five outings.

It's hard to put any faith in the Warriors amid this disastrous stretch on the road, but the visitors are boosted by the return of Draymond Green after serving a suspension against the Hawks last night. Still, Andrew Wiggins’ continued absence has left Golden State light on defensive stoppers — which could present problems if Desmond Bane gets hot.

The Warriors are 0-7 ATS in the last seven meetings in Memphis and it’s worth monitoring whether Steve Kerr shakes up his rotation to get a response. Jordan Poole’s production has been erratic off the bench (4-for-12 against the Hawks and -11 in 24 minutes) but Kevon Looney is coming off a monster 18-point, 16-rebound performance last night.

Warriors vs Grizzlies Over/Under analysis

It’s been a series of shootouts for the Warriors on the road lately, while wasting a number of vintage Curry performances, including a 50-point outburst in the 134-126 loss to the L.A. Clippers on Wednesday.

Kerr called his team’s 3-point defense “mind-boggling” after last night’s setback in Atlanta, and the Over is 4-1-1 in Golden State’s last six games overall. The Splash Brothers tend to keep the Over in play, but Klay Thompson is 5-for-15 from behind the arc in his last two games.

The Grizzlies had been trending towards the Under even before Morant stepped away from the team. It’s 7-2-1 in Memphis’ last 10 home games and 5-1-1 in their last seven outings following a SU win. Jaren Jackson Jr.’s defensive presence in the paint is the biggest reason for that — and he even chipped in with 28 points last night.

Warriors vs Grizzlies betting trend to know

Golden State’s woes away from Chase Center haven’t been tied to their offense. The Over is 9-2 in the Warriors’ last 11 road games against teams with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. Find more NBA betting trends for Warriors vs. Grizzlies.

Warriors vs Grizzlies game info

Location: FedEx Forum, Memphis, TN
Date: Saturday, March 18, 2023
Tip-off: 8:00 p.m. ET
TV: Bally Sports SE-MEM, NBC Sports Bay Area

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