The Minnesota Timberwolves are getting healthy and gaining momentum at the right time, bringing a three-game winning streak and full roster with them to face the Sacramento Kings.
The Wolves closed the gap on sixth-placed Golden State with a road win over the Warriors last night, headlined by Anthony Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns on the court together for the first time since late November.
Sacramento bucked a two-game bump with back-to-back victories over Phoenix and Utah this past weekend. That has the team in third in the West and on the verge of clinching its first playoff berth in 16 years. A win tonight would punch that ticket, but books have a tight spread set for this contest.
I break down the spread and Over/Under total for Monday’s matchup and give my best NBA picks and predictions for the Timberwolves vs. Kings on March 27.
Timberwolves vs Kings best odds
Timberwolves vs Kings picks and predictions
The energy inside the Golden 1 Center will be frenetic tonight, with the Kings on the verge of a postseason appearance. From the opening tip, the environment will be electric in Sacramento and the crowd won’t have to wait long for sparks.
Minnesota enters this contest as one of the fastest starting offenses in the NBA — averaging more than 30 points in the opening frame on the season — and upping that intensity to 32.7 average first-quarter points this month.
The Wolves put up a rare flat first quarter in San Francisco last night, still scoring 29 points on 9-for-23 shooting in the initial 12 minutes of play, but did can 5 of 13 from beyond the arc. The Warriors are a much stickier defensive opponent on their own court than what the Timberwolves will tackle in Sacramento tonight.
The Kings rank in the basement on defense and are allowing 30.7 first-quarter points — third most in the NBA. Sacramento counters that with plenty of points of its own, posting more than 30 points in those opening frames and 31.1 at home.
We don’t have to go back too far to see how these two teams match up against each other, with the Timberwolves winning a high-scoring affair in Sacramento on March 4. The first quarter of that encounter set the tone for a busy night on the scoreboard, with Minnesota jumping out to a 36-30 lead after 12 minutes.
Tonight’s first-quarter Over/Under is set at 61.5, well below that previous result from early March and dwarfed by Minnesota’s recent first-quarter exploits. The Wolves watched 79 points hit the board in the opening frame in the win over Atlanta and 74 points show up in the first quarter in the win over New York last week.
On the season, Minnesota is 43-32 O/U against 1Q totals and has plenty of scoring options now that Karl-Anthony Towns and Anthony Edwards are reunited.
The Kings have had mixed results when it comes to 1Q totals (36-36-2 O/U), due in part to books padding on the points. But they’re 22-15-1 O/U on 1Q totals at home where they see an average of 61.5 combined points per game in that opening frame — smackdab on tonight’s mark.
With the Wolves coming out swinging, I’m bracing for a high-octane opening frame in what will be a crazy Golden 1 Center tonight.
My best bet: First quarter Over 61.5 (-115 at bet365)
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Timberwolves vs Kings spread analysis
Upon conclusion of Minnesota’s 99-96 victory in Golden State, books opened this spread with the Wolves as big as 5.5-point road underdogs in Sacramento. De'Aaron Fox's status this morning had the line fall to as low as -4, but with him expected to play it has moved back to -5.5 in favor of the Kings.
The pieces seem to be falling in place for the Timberwolves at the right time, getting star big man KAT back on the court after missing almost four months with an Achilles strain. He was joined on Monday by standout guard Anthony Edwards, who missed the previous three games with an ankle injury.
That pair combined for 27 points in a solid all-around offensive effort from Minnesota last night, which included six players in double figures. The Timberwolves won’t face as stiff a defense in Sacramento tonight, with the Kings ranked among the bottom in most defensive metrics.
That porous defense has cost Sacramento backers recently, with the Kings going 1-3 ATS in their last four games while giving up an average of 125 points in that span. Sacramento is 41-32-1 ATS on the season, including an 18-19-1 ATS count inside the Golden 1 Center.
These teams clashed recently, with Minnesota taking a 138-134 victory in Sacramento on March 4, covering as 4.5-point road underdogs. The Wolves were still without Towns at the time and shot 60% from the field, including 20-for-39 from beyond the arc.
Timberwolves vs Kings Over/Under analysis
This Over/Under opened as high as 242.5 points last night and immediately sunk to as low as 238.5, with Fox on the fence and the T-Wolves coming off an impressive defensive effort against the Warriors on Sunday. As of Monday noon ET, the market consensus for this O/U is 239.5 points with the most recent Fox news coming to light.
Minnesota’s defensive chops are up for debate, as it's allowed more than 119 points per game this month and enters Monday with the 17th-ranked defense through 11 games in March so far. Sunday’s effort against Golden State could easily be blamed on sloppy play from the Warriors, who laid an egg overall and committed 16 turnovers — including two crucial errors in the final minute.
Before last night’s low-scoring result, which played well Under the closing total of 241.5 points, the T-Wolves had given up point totals of 124 and 134 in shootout wins over Atlanta and New York. Minnesota was on a four-game Over run before last night’s finish.
Sacramento will test that rotation with an offense that sits atop most offensive measurements and pops off for a league-high 124 points per home game. The Kings posted 134 points in their last meeting with Minnesota, shooting 55% from the field and making 14 of 27 triples.
Oddsmakers have piled on the points when it comes to Sacramento’s game totals, and that’s led to a somewhat even 38-35-1 O/U mark on the season. However, even the tallest totals have succumbed to the Kings’ style of play in recent weeks, with Sacramento going Over the number in 11 of their last 17 outings since the All-Star break.
The total for their March 4 meeting with Minnesota opened at 238 points and closed as low as 237.5, putting tonight’s Over/Under in the same range.
Timberwolves vs Kings betting trend to know
Minnesota is 43-32 Over/Under against 1Q totals this season (57.3% Overs). Find more NBA betting trends for Timberwolves vs. Kings.
Timberwolves vs Kings game info
| Location: | Golden 1 Center, Sacramento, CA |
| Date: | Monday, March 27, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBCSCA, BSN |
