The Golden State Warriors are in the middle of a tough stretch — losers of four straight — and on top of that they’re now playing without two of their best players in Stephen Curry and Draymond Green.
Can Golden State overcome the NBA odds and find a win on Thursday night against the Oklahoma City Thunder?
Let's find out in my free NBA picks for the Thunder vs. Warriors on November 16.
Thunder vs Warriors odds
Thunder vs Warriors predictions
The Oklahoma City Thunder enter tonight's matchup as one of the top 3-point shooting teams in the league, but that’s not where I’m looking to find an edge in this matchup. According to Cleaning the Glass, this team ranks inside the Top 5 in shot frequency at the rim and that could be a tough spot on Thursday night.
The Golden State Warriors are inside the Top 10 in the league when it comes to defense inside of four feet, and a year after being a middling team in the league, they’re inside the Top 10 in rebounding rate. Kevon Looney has done an excellent job down low to help Golden State in both regards.
The Thunder are just 28th in rebounding rate this season, and even in the minutes Green has not played, the Warriors are still grabbing a solid 51.2% of available rebounds. I think they'll influence plenty of shots down low and out-rebound the Thunder by a decisive margin, which should make them a team worth backing here.
This game will be decided by both defenses, and I trust Golden State more here on that end despite the absence of Curry and Green.
My best bet: Warriors +3.5 (-110 at Caesars)
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Thunder vs Warriors same-game parlay
Warriors +3
Chet Holgren Under 22.5 points+rebounds
Klay Thompson Over 25.5 points+rebounds
Continuing the discussion above, I want to attack the rebounding deficiency of OKC here. Golden State should have an undeniable edge in that regard — even if it winds up losing this game — and the first guy I want to start with is Chet Holmgren.
The big man is going to draw Looney in this matchup, a guy who has been exceptional at stealing boards away from his opponents. While he did grab eight rebounds the last time these two teams met, he’s failed to eclipse seven boards in each of his last four games.
Klay Thompson is another guy who should thrive in this matchup, as he'll be given plenty of opportunities to score: given his usage rate has increased by a team-high 2.62% with Green off the floor this year... and on top of that, he has 15 boards in three game without Green.
Thompson should score plenty and add some rebounds to his ledger against a team that has been incredibly weak in that regard. Put it all together and I love this parlay as a way to fade the Thunder down low.
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Thunder vs Warriors spread and Over/Under analysis
This is a matchup featuring two of the 10 best defenses in the league according to the efficiency numbers. While the Thunder do like to run at a fast pace, this is a pace-down game for OKC given the Warriors are 10 spots lower in that category.
Sure, the pace of the last game played between these two Western Conference foes was fast, but that game featured Green and Curry who are key to the transition game for Golden State. Without the pair, we can expect a slight dip in offensive success for the Warriors and I think it’ll turn into a grind fest. If not for the matchup inside with Golden State, I’d be inclined to make the Under my best bet for this one.
Interestingly enough, 74% of the bets and a solid 70% of the cash wagered on the total have come in on the Over here at the DraftKings Sportsbook while 81% of the bets and 89% of the money is with the Warriors here.
Thunder vs Warriors betting trend to know
The Warriors are 4-1 against the spread this season as underdogs. Find more NBA betting trends for Thunder vs Warriors.
Thunder vs Warriors game info
| Location: | Chase Center, San Francisco, CA |
| Date: | Thursday, November 16, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports OK, NBCS-Bay Area |
Thunder vs Warriors latest injuries
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