With the Western Conference Finals tied at 1-1 apiece, the series shifts to the Alamo City as the San Antonio Spurs look to regain the upper hand on the defending champion Oklahoma City Thunder.
Our Thunder vs. Spurs predictions for Game 3 include no shortage of NBA player prop projections, and we have you covered for the best NBA picks on Friday, May 22.
Thunder vs Spurs computer picks for Game 3
 Thunder |
 Spurs |
|---|---|
| Gilgeous-Alexander u7.5 assists +102 |
Harper o11.5 points -109 |
| Holmgren o13.5 points -112 |
Champagnie u2.5 threes -105 |
| Mitchell u14.5 points -115 |
Castle u7.5 assists +110 |
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Thunder Game 3 computer picks
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 7.5 assists (+102)
Projection: 6.24 assists
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has failed to clear this line in seven of his last 10 games, and given the Oklahoma City Thunder's sixth-slowest pace, expect that to continue in Game 3.
OKC also ranks as the second-worst team in offensive rebounding on the road, so Victor Wembanyama and the San Antonio Spurs should limit SGA's facilitating tonight.
Chet Holmgren Over 13.5 points (-112)
Projection: 16.02 points
Chet Holmgren has cashed this prop in seven of his last 10, and our computer projects a 18.77% EV advantage ahead of tip-off.
The Thunder have averaged 119.6 points per game away from the Paycom Center this season, and Holmgren should continue to be one of the main beneficiaries tonight.
Ajay Mitchell Under 14.5 points (-115)
Projection: 12.98 points
Ajay Mitchell has accumulated just 14 points through the first two games of this series, attempting only 13 shots in the process.
The OKC guard has finished below this number in six of his last 10 contests, and an elite San Antonio Spurs defense (third in defensive rating) is set to keep it that way.
Spurs Game 3 computer picks
Dylan Harper Over 11.5 points (-109)
Projection: 12.57 points
Dylan Harper has really stepped it up in the postseason, averaging 16.4 ppg over his last five matches.
The rookie should continue to light it up against a Thunder defense that allows starting point guards to attempt the most threes per contest.
Julian Champagnie Under 2.5 threes (-120)
Projection: 2.28 threes
Julian Champagnie has missed the cut on 2.5 threes in five of his last 10 games.
Shooting just 4-for-18 from 3-point range in the Western Conference Finals, look for the third-year Spur to take a backseat offensively tonight.
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Stephen Castle Under 7.5 assists (+110)
Projection: 6.84 assists
Stephen Castle’s assist totals have dipped from 7.4 per game in the regular season to 6.6 in the postseason.
At plus money, it’s worth a look for the Spurs guard, who has cleared this prop in just four of his last 10 contests.
How to watch Thunder vs Spurs Game 3
| Location | Frost Bank Center, San Antonio, TX |
| Date | Friday, May 22, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBC |
Not intended for use in MA.
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