Thunder vs Lakers Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: Davis Runs the Show

Anthony Davis is the centerpiece of this Lakers team and can win a game all by himself. Facing a gassed Thunder that fought hard to win on Sunday, the Brow is in an excellent spot to run up the score. See how we like to approach his output below.

Mar 4, 2024 • 14:56 ET • 4 min read
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This article contains predictions for an old game!

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The Oklahoma City Thunder may sit atop the Western Conference, but a scheduling disadvantage could cost them tonight against the Los Angeles Lakers. The Thunder needed a fourth-quarter comeback to top the Suns on Sunday after first squandering a 24-point lead in the third quarter.

That kind of whiplash may be disorienting for the youngest roster in the NBA. The scheduling disadvantage alone gave the Lakers an edge in the spread early on Monday, but this game has effectively settled as a pick'em in the NBA odds.

There may be little value in that spread, but there should be value in the NBA player props market in our free NBA picks and predictions as we preview the Thunder vs the Lakers on Monday, March 4, with tip set for 10:30 ET.

Thunder vs Lakers odds

Thunder vs Lakers predictions

The Los Angeles Lakers looked like they had found something sustainable. Going 11-5 from January 14 to February 14 pushed Los Angeles from No. 11 to No. 9 in the Western Conference. The Lakers had a two-game lead on the Warriors for homecourt in the first Play-In game.

Now they have gone 3-3 since, falling back behind Golden State.

Los Angeles has little to worry about in terms of missing the postseason entirely. It has a 5.5-game edge on the Jazz in that regard. The NBA is grateful for that, undoubtedly hoping the Lakers face the Warriors in a single-elimination moment this spring.

If that day comes, Los Angeles’ most dependable player might not be LeBron James, but Anthony Davis. He has scored 26 or more points in 35 of his 58 games this season, averaging 25 while shooting 55.8% from the field.

That may sound modest, and elevating Davis above James may seem short-sighted, particularly with the 40,000-point scorer averaging 25.3 points, 7.9 assists, and 7.0 rebounds per game this season. But Davis has 3.2 more win shares, per Basketball-Reference, and is also well ahead of James in win shares per 48 minutes.

Davis is the Lakers’ best player right now, and if they make a postseason run, he will be the engine. Imagine, Davis could beat the Warriors and then win the final Play-In game to garner the right to face the West’s top seed, quite possibly the Oklahoma City Thunder.

And if that becomes reality, Los Angeles may have hope. It has won two of three against Oklahoma City this season largely due to Davis. He scored at least 26 points in all three games while averaging 13.3 rebounds and shooting 55.4% from the field.

Simply enough, those numbers track with Davis’s season (25.0, 12.3, 55.8%), as well as with his last month (25.1, 13.1, and 57.6% since Feb. 1). What is different when Davis faces the Thunder is his procession to the free-throw line.

Davis has attempted only 6.4 free throws per game since Feb. 1, making 84.4% of them. He has attempted 6.8 per game this season, making 81.3% of them. Against Oklahoma City, however, Davis has averaged 8.7 free throws per game, making 80.8 percent of them.

That uptick, effectively two points per game, when going against Chet Holmgren raises the floor on Davis’s points prop, creating value tonight.

My best bet: Anthony Davis Over 26.5 points (+100 at BetRivers)

Thunder vs Lakers same-game parlay

Anthony Davis Over 25.5 points

Lakers moneyline

Chet Holmgren Over 2.5 blocks

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Davis could conceivably dominate tonight. That may not be the most likely outcome, but it is within the realm of possibility and it would almost certainly lead to a Lakers win.

But Los Angeles could also win just by playing well overall.  It topped the Clippers last week as a short underdog, wallopped the Pelicans in a home game as another short ‘dog on Feb. 9, and beat these same Thunder as, again, a short underdog at home on Jan. 15. Only the Nuggets seem to have the Lakers’ number in Los Angeles when a slight favorite.

And as good as Oklahoma City is this season, it is not Denver.

Adding in Holmgren’s blocks pop creates a counter-intuitive boost from the sportsbook. Holmgren’s defensive success does not mesh with Davis pouring in points, but Holmgren did block three shots in each of his last two meetings with the Lakers.

That combination boosts this payout significantly despite that exact combination being a reality in the last two meetings between these teams.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Thunder vs Lakers spread and Over/Under analysis

This spread has bounced around pick’em, opening with the Lakers favored by a point on Sunday evening, and finally crossing across zero early on Monday afternoon.

That reticence may have tied to concerns that Oklahoma City would pull back its lineup on the second night of a back-to-back, but there is no expectation of that, while LeBron is listed as questionable.

The total fell with that spread movement, opening at 240.5 and reaching as low as 237.5 during the overnight, settling at 238.

Thunder vs Lakers betting trend to know

The Lakers are 21-10 outright at home this season with a +4.5 net rating, compared to 12-19 on the road with a -5.5 net rating. Find more NBA betting trends for Thunder vs. Lakers.

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Thunder vs Lakers game info

Location: Arena, Los Angeles, CA
Date: Monday, March 4, 2024
Tip-off: 10:30 p.m. ET
TV: Bally Sports Oklahoma, Spectrum SportsNet

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