Suns vs Jazz Picks and Predictions: Will Ayton Rise Again Without Durant?

The NBA’s Western Conference is a pressure cooker this season, and Monday’s matchup between the Phoenix Suns and the Utah Jazz is a great example.

The Suns currently sit in fourth place in the conference while the Jazz are 12th. Yet only four games separate the two teams. Unfortunately, injuries may rob us of the best matchup possible here.

Kevin Durant remains out for Phoenix, but the team is expecting Deandre Ayton back after the center missed a handful of games. While the Jazz could be without their top two scorers in Lauri Markkanen and Jordan Clarkson.

The Suns are better equipped to handle their injuries, but will they be able to cover a 6.5-point spread on the road? Here are my free NBA betting picks and predictions for Suns vs. Jazz.

Suns vs Jazz best odds

Suns vs Jazz picks and predictions

Things haven’t been great for the Phoenix Suns since Kevin Durant went down with his latest injury. Phoenix is just 3-6 straight up and 2-7 against the spread with Durant once again sidelined.

The Suns also endured a rough road trip last week, going 0-3 SU/ATS before coming home and grabbing a solid win over the Philadelphia 76ers. All four of those games were without center Deandre Ayton, who's expected to be back for this matchup. He could be in for a big performance against the Utah Jazz.

Utah comes into this matchup after dropping their last three straight games. Those struggles are primarily tied to Lauri Markkanen and Jordan Clarkson, the team's top two scorers, being out with injuries. But on top of that, the Jazz's defense has been nonexistent in those games, surrendering a whopping 130.7 points on 50.1% shooting from the field. 

But this isn’t a new thing for the Jazz. Utah ranks 21st in defensive rating since the All-Star break, and opposing bigs have given them problems all season. The Jazz rank 26th in the NBA in opponents' points in the paint, and 29th in points allowed to opposing centers per game.

Enter Ayton. The Suns center is averaging 18.3 points and 10.1 rebounds per game this season. But his usage has gone up since the Suns' roster makeover prior to the trade deadline, particularly when Durant hasn’t been on the court. 

Since Phoenix traded for Durant, Ayton has played 13 games without his superstar teammate and is averaging 20.5 points in those contests on 13.6 field-goal attempts per outing. 

Additionally, he’s gone for 17 and 29 points over two matchups against the Jazz. Ayton’s point total for tonight’s game is 17.5. He’s gone Over that number 15 times in his last 23 games. Take him to do it again on Monday.

My best bet: Deandre Ayton Over 17.5 points (-108 at FanDuel)

Suns vs Jazz spread analysis

The Suns opened this Western Conference battle favored by a touchdown. They were briefly bet down to 6.5 but have bounced back to the opening number as of Monday afternoon.

Phoenix has struggled while needing to deal with key players in and out of the lineup. The Suns failed to cover the spread in seven consecutive games prior to a 125-105 win over the Sixers as 1-point home favorites last time out.

Devin Booker went off for 29 points on 9-of-18 shooting in that matchup. The other good sign was that the Suns are starting to get something out of their new-look bench, including Terrance Ross and TJ Warren, who combined for 31 points.

And the Suns aren't experiencing any issues with their offense, which ranks fifth in efficiency since the All-Star break.

Now they’ll go against a Jazz team that's lost three straight games, could be without its top two scorers (Markkanen is questionable to play), and has a defense that's handing out more buckets than a KFC lately. The Jazz rank 24th in defensive rating, and 24th in scoring defense.

Lean toward the Suns. Despite their difficulties covering spreads of late, Phoenix’s issues aren’t nearly as glaring as the Jazz’s heading into this matchup.

Suns vs Jazz Over/Under analysis

The total for this matchup hit the board at a fairly high 233.5 and has been bet up slightly to 234. And I agree with the early money. I’ve already looked at why the Suns should find success on offense in this matchup. But the Jazz could put up some points as well, even without their top two scorers.

Utah has still managed to put up 114.7 points per game during its three-game losing streak thanks to the very high tempo the team uses. Utah ranks second in the NBA in pace since the All-Star break, and the new-look Suns haven’t been that lockdown defensive team of the past couple of seasons, ranking 17th in efficiency over that stretch.

The Jazz have also been an Over machine lately, going 9-1-1 to the Over in their last 11 games.

Suns vs Jazz betting trend to know

The Over is 5-0-1 in the Suns' last six games on the road and 4-0 in the Jazz's last four at home. Find more NBA betting trends for Suns vs. Jazz.

Suns vs Jazz game info

Suns vs Jazz key injuries

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