Spurs vs Thunder Computer Picks: Our Best Player Prop Projections for Game 7

The Oklahoma City Thunder have slowed things down to the seventh-lowest pace in the league over their last 25 home games.

This sluggish tempo should limit overall possessions for the San Antonio Spurs and put a dent in Victor Wembanyama's offensive production. It's a style that plays right into OKC's hands, as they've dominated at Paycom Center with a stellar 6-1 home record during this postseason run.

Stephon Castle has been an absolute assist machine throughout this series against the Thunder. Castle has cleared this line in four of the six games against OKC, while narrowly missing the mark in the other two.

With San Antonio's season on the line and a ticket to the NBA Finals within reach, expect Castle to be locked in as a primary facilitator.

The Thunder have been absolutely brutal on opposing small forwards this year, holding them to a mere 25.5% shooting from beyond the arc—the second-lowest mark in the league.

While Devin Vassell has defied this difficult matchup by sinking two or more 3-pointers in every single game this series, OKC will undoubtedly sell out to run him off the perimeter tonight.

Expect a heavy defensive focus as the Thunder look to snap Vassell's streak and keep him from clearing a prop line he has already cashed in four of the six games.

The Thunder check in as the league's third-highest scoring offense over their last 20 games. They are also projected to see an uptick in total possessions tonight by sharing the floor with a fast-paced Spurs squad that ranks 10th in tempo on the road this year.

Furthermore, this matchup offers an excellent opportunity to get to the free-throw line — something Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has done masterfully all series. San Antonio has been highly generous in that department lately, allowing opposing starting point guards to attempt a whopping 4.4 foul shots per game over the last 10 contests, the 10th-highest mark in the NBA.

It's time for Chet Holmgren to step up in a major way. While he has looked more like himself on the glass over the last two games against the Spurs, it is non-negotiable for him to hold his own against Wemby if Oklahoma City wants to return to the NBA Finals.

Holmgren has managed to clear this rebounding prop in three consecutive games, and the Thunder will need that momentum to continue if they hope to secure a Game 7 victory.

The Thunder have been highly aggressive from deep over their last 25 home games, ranking 10th in the league in 3-point attempts.

Alex Caruso has been as reliable as they come on both ends of the floor especially from the perimeter, where he has knocked down three or more triples in four of the six matchups in this series.