The Houston Rockets have an opportunity right now to effectively seal a top-three seed in the Western Conference, if not secure a top-two seed. They cannot take any opponents lightly.
That includes the Dallas Mavericks, even if Dallas has hit a spiral that will send it back into the lottery.
My Rockets vs. Mavericks predictions and NBA picks expect focus from Houston at tip at 8:30 p.m. ET on Saturday, January 3.
Rockets vs Mavericks prediction
Rockets vs Mavericks best bet: Rockets -8 (-110)
Let’s not overthink this. The Dallas Mavericks have gone 0-7 against the spread in their last seven games, falling short of bookmakers’ expectations by an average of 5.6 points per game and coming within a bucket of the spread only twice in those seven games.
You should never place a bet simply because of a recent trend, but when that trend has been that far from correcting, it becomes less a trend and more a reality that the Mavericks have not yet been properly dropped in bookmakers’ eyes.
It makes some sense. Up until this stretch, Dallas was 14-14 against the spread. That was a team that warrants some faith. But falling multiple buckets short of the spread in five of seven games, with those two exceptions still being ATS losses, should elicit more skepticism.
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Rockets vs Mavericks same-game parlay
Dallas’s downgrade has come in part due to opposing defenses better understanding the best way to slow the Mavericks is to force Cooper Flagg to move the ball.
His assists have stacked up — clearing this prop in each of his last six and in eight of his last 10 while averaging 6.1 assists in that stretch — while his shooting efficiency has plummeted.
Rockets vs Mavericks SGP
- Rockets -8
- Cooper Flagg Over 4.5 assists
- Cooper Flagg Under 19.5 points
Our "from downtown" SGP: Şengün proves a point
Backing Alperen Şengün to break out of his slump is essentially a bet on his motivation to make a statement against the likely Rookie of the Year after missing the Houston Rockets' first meeting with Dallas.
Rockets vs Mavericks SGP
- Rockets -8
- Cooper Flagg Over 4.5 assists
- Cooper Flagg Under 19.5 points
- Alperen Şengün Over 20.5 points
Rockets vs Mavericks odds
- Spread: Rockets -8 | Mavericks +
- Moneyline: Rockets -330 | Mavericks +265
- Over/Under: Over 228 | Under 228
Rockets vs Mavericks betting trend to know
Houston has gone 3-1 ATS in its last four. The one ATS loss came as a 24.5-point favorite, and the Rockets led by 27 going into the fourth quarter. Find more NBA betting trends for Rockets vs. Mavericks.
How to watch Rockets vs Mavericks
| Location | American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX |
| Date | Saturday, January 3, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | SCHN, KFAA |
Rockets vs Mavericks latest injuries
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