The first round of the playoffs can be somewhat of a formality, regardless of the sport. The NBA Playoffs, however, have provided a little spice early on in recent postseasons.
We’ve recently watched lower-seeded squads burn their opening round opponents and make a deep run, like Miami in 2023, Dallas in 2024, and Minnesota last year.
The 2026 NBA Playoff bracket is top-heavy, with the Top 2 seeds in the East and West boasting a significant gap between them and the rest of the field. But that doesn’t mean everything will go according to plan, as my NBA Playoff upset predictions and underdog rankings explain.
With the Play-In Tournament tipping off his week, my NBA picks size up the teams seeded No. 5 through No. 10 in each conference and their “spice” level based on a potential first-round upset possibility.
No. 5 Seeds
Toronto Raptors: 🌶️🌶️🌶️
The Toronto Raptors (+425 series price) draw the Cleveland Cavaliers in the opening round. Toronto did beat Cleveland in all three matchups, but those came before the calendar flipped to 2026.
The Raptors have a solid defense, but may not have the scoring punch to keep pace with the Cavs’ superstars and size.
The health of PG Immanuel Quickley is a biggest question. Without him, it makes Scottie Barnes a ball-handler and dulls his scoring punch.
Toronto needs all the points it can produce if this series turns into a shootout.
Houston Rockets (via L.A. Lakers): 🌶️
Tough to call the No. 5 Houston Rockets a “spicy” upset pick when they’re -750 series favorites against the fourth-seeded L.A. Lakers. Houston faces an injury-gutted Los Angeles squad and whatever is left of LeBron James.
Instead, I measure the Lakers’ chances of advancing without Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves. Maybe L.A. gets one game. Maybe. And that’s giving LeBron a lot of credit.
No. 6 Seeds
Atlanta Hawks: 🌶️🌶️🌶️🌶️🌶️
If the NBA postseason was an episode of “Hot Ones,” the Atlanta Hawks would be Da Bomb Beyond Insanity sauce, an almost chemical aroma that floods the senses with pain and confusion.
The Hawks’ “Three and D” style has a similar effect and is made for postseason upsets, especially when that opponent is the inconsistent New York Knicks.
Atlanta went 1-2 versus New York, but those losses were both decided by three points. There’s a reason the Hawks are the shortest Round 1 underdog at +230 to win the series.
Minnesota Timberwolves: 🌶️🌶️🌶️🌶️
Not that Anthony Edwards lacked confidence, but an underdog with hope is a dangerous one.
The Minnesota Timberwolves (+270) aren’t afraid of the Denver Nuggets, not after knocking out Denver in 2024 and advancing to the West finals in back-to-back years.
The T-Wolves are healthy, and if the Nuggets can’t tighten the bolts defensively, every game is a coin-flip in a shootout series.
No. 7 Seeds
Philadelphia 76ers: 🌶️🌶️
The Philadelphia 76ers will start the postseason without Joel Embiid after an appendectomy last week. Two to four weeks is the normal recovery time.
The Sixers play Orlando in the Play-In and would take on either Detroit or Boston in the opening round.
With Embiid healthy, spicy Philly would require a glass of milk. Without him, it barely burns the lips.
Phoenix Suns: 🌶️
The Phoenix Suns play the Portland Trail Blazers in the Play-In Tournament, which is a tough draw considering how well Portland is playing. Should it survive the Play-In, Phoenix will face either OKC or San Antonio.
The Suns have a combined 4-5 SU record versus the best in the West, but don’t have the size to counter those foes through seven games.
No. 8 Seeds
Orlando Magic: 🌶️🌶️
The Orlando Magic left a bad taste in our mouths by botching the season finale against Boston’s skeleton squad, dropping to the No. 8 spot in the East. That means Orlando travels to Philadelphia in the Play-In opener.
The Magic aren’t particularly great at one area, and mental toughness as well as coaching is a major blemish.
Portland Trail Blazers: 🌶️🌶️
Do I think Portland can knock off OKC or San Antonio? No. Are they a pain in the ass to play? For sure.
The Trail Blazers bring momentum (10-5 SU last 15 games) and a pesky defense (No. 1 defensive rating in that span) into the postseason, facing Phoenix in the Play-In opener.
No. 9 Seeds
Charlotte Hornets: 🌶️🌶️🌶️
The Charlotte Hornets need two wins to get to the playoffs, opening versus Miami at home in the Play-In.
The Hornets were 18-9 SU after the break, have a solid record versus .500+ teams, and are just young and dumb enough to give Detroit a scare.
Charlotte owned the No. 2 offensive rating in the second half of the season.
Los Angeles Clippers: 🌶️
The Los Angeles Clippers went 19-30 against teams with records of .500 or above, including losing all three meetings with Oklahoma City.
Los Angeles earned the No. 9 seed by feasting on mild opponents down the stretch and hasn’t scored a win worth a damn in a month.
No. 10 Seeds
Miami Heat: 🌶️
Regardless of the nickname, the Miami Heat are about as mild as “Taco Tuesday” at the Old Folks Home.
Miami has five wins in its last 15 games and two of those came against Washington. The Heat have hemorrhaged 127.5 points per game in that span.
Golden State Warriors: 🌶️
The Golden State Warriors’ motivation level sits somewhere between “trip to the dentist” and “attending your co-workers improv show.”
Draymond Green doesn’t want to be here, and Steve Kerr’s biggest concern is keeping Stephen Curry healthy for a final 48 minutes.
