Best NBA Player Props Today: Paolo Powers Magic in Cleveland

With three games on the schedule tonight, Jason Logan is back with one choice cut from each contest in his favorite NBA player props. One of which involves Magic forward Paolo Banchero, whose minutes should tick back up after two blowout wins.

Jason Logan: Senior Betting Analyst at Covers
Jason Logan • Senior Betting Analyst
Apr 30, 2024 • 11:23 ET • 4 min read
Paolo Banchero Orlando Magic NBA
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The opening round of NBA Playoff betting is coming to a close and there are three games on the NBA odds board tonight, with two potential eliminations.

The New York Knicks go for the KO against the Philadelphia 76ers and the Indiana Pacers try to put away the Milwaukee Bucks. In between those tilts, the Cleveland Cavaliers and Orlando Magic will break their 2-2 series deadlock in Game 5.

I pass on the spreads and totals and go after the NBA prop markets on Tuesday night, giving you my best NBA picks and predictions for April 30.

Best NBA player props today

Picks made on 4-30 at 10:30 a.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.

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NBA player props for April 30

Prop bet #1: Maxed Out

The Philadelphia 76ers’ gas tank could be running dry, which doesn’t seem possible for Tyrese Maxey and his perpetual high energy. Philadelphia’s fatigue is playing a factor in this quarterfinal series, manifesting in sloppy fourth-quarter finishes.

Maxey was outstanding in the opening two games, putting up efforts of 33 and 35 points on a collective 26-for-48 shooting (54%). However, with Philadelphia leaning heavily into stars Maxey and Joel Embiid, that weight is beginning to wear. 

Maxey has shot a combined 17-for-42 in the past two outings, with scores of 25 and 23 points. He’s logged 40-plus minutes in all four games of a very physical matchup with the New York Knicks. Game 5 features the lowest total of the series, with the Over/Under at 203.5 points. The offensive pace of this quarterfinal matchup has been among the most methodical in the opening round of the NBA Playoffs.

Maxey’s scoring prop for Game 5 is at 25.5 points Over/Under, with some books down to 24.5 O/U on Tuesday morning. Most shops have adjusted on the Under and have a hefty price tag on Maxey scoring less than 25, as expensive as -134 at some sharp books.

Player projections for Game 5 vary on Maxey’s output. Some call for a ceiling of 26.5 points but the majority of models are calling for a sub-25 night from the 76ers guard. My number comes out to around 23.5 points.

Tyrese Maxey prop: Under 25.5 points (-104 at FanDuel)

Prop bet #2: Banchero on the Boards

A Game 5 showdown awaits Orlando Magic star Paolo Banchero, who has helped dig the Magic out of a 0-2 hole in this quarterfinal clash. 

Banchero enters this crucial contest with fresh legs after playing limited minutes the past two outings. With Orlando squashing the Cavs, holding leads of 30 and 43 points, respectively, he’s logged just 29 minutes in both Game 3 and Game 4.

With the series swinging back to Cleveland and the Magic pegged as 5-point underdogs, expect Banchero to see floor time more in line with the 40-plus minutes he put in during the opening two games.

He grabbed only four rebounds in Game 4’s one-sided win and that’s dragging down his player prop for Game 5, with books setting his rebounding total at 6.5 O/U after closing at 7.5 O/U for the first four games.

Banchero had seven boards in Game 1 and only three in Game 2, but hit the glass for 14 rebounds in Game 3 despite the limited floor time. His player projections for tonight call for between 6.8 and 8.4 rebounds, with all models coming in above this current prop total.

My number sits at 7.3 rebounds from Orlando’s second-year forward, which should have Over 6.5 boards priced in the -130 range. Most sportsbooks are higher on that side, with the Over as pricy as -145.

Paolo Banchero prop: Over 6.5 rebounds (-124 at BetRivers)

Prop bet #3: Pass the Bucks

The Indiana Pacers have a broken Milwaukee Bucks team on the ropes in Game 5, with Milwaukee’s roster wearing thin due to big-name injuries. 

The NBA odds have Indiana installed as a 4-point road favorite and after a solid thumping of the Bucks in Game 4 (the biggest lead was 19 points), the Pacers could put their opening-round foes away easily tonight.

Indiana’s bench has been big during this series, namely backup point guard T.J. McConnell. He’s coming off an eight-point, eight-assist effort over 18 minutes in Game 4 and enters with an assist prop at 3.5.

McConnell, who averaged 5.5 assists over 18 minutes in the regular season, is projected for another solid showing in reserve, with some models pegging him for close to six assists. My number comes out to 4.7 helpers with McConnell averaging 5.3 potential assists for the series, including eight possible dimes in Game 4. 

He has a higher ceiling for Game 5, given starting PG Tyrese Haliburton is dealing with a bad back and Milwaukee’s best perimeter pest, Patrick Beverley, has been limited with an oblique injury (played only 21 minutes in Game 4). Any opportunity to rest Haliburton will tack on extra minutes for McConnell on Tuesday night.

T.J. McConnell prop: Over 3.5 assists (-125 at DraftKings)

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Jason Logan Senior Industry Analyst Covers.com
Senior Betting Analyst

In his 20 years with Covers, lead NFL betting analyst; has seen it all and bet it all. Through the wild west of early Internet gambling to lobbying for legalized sports betting to our brave new wagering world, Jason has been a consistent source of actionable info and entertainment for squares and sharps alike. Since joining the Covers team back in 2005, he honed his handicapping skills to provide audiences with the most thorough insights, blending traditional capping methods with advanced modelling and predictive analysis. Jason has studied the ins and outs of the sports betting business, learning from some of the most successful gamblers in the industry and the biggest sportsbook operators on the planet. He is under center for Covers during NFL season as our top NFL expert, taking the points in his infamous NFL Underdogs column and representing the Covers Community at the Super Bowl. While he lives for football season, Jasons first love is basketball and that shows in his in-depth NBA, NCAA, and WNBA betting breakdowns. On top of being a mainstay in media from coast to coast; WPIX, PHL17, Fox 5 San Diego, WGNO, TSN, SportsNet, ESPN Radio; he had his analysis featured in USA Today, MSNBC, ESPN, the Wall Street Journal, CBS, Bloomberg, the L.A. Times, the New York Times and other major publications. You can also find JLo stuffing all the top picks and predictions he can into 10 minutes as the host of Covers; flagship podcast, The Sharp 600. His best advice for bettors new and old is; Handicapping isn't a one size fits all process. The impact and importance of information varies from bet to bet. Treat each wager different than the last.

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