Pistons vs Hawks Picks and Predictions: Expect Plenty of Scoring in Atlanta

Detroit may have nothing to play for, but it is capable of making this one worth watching.

The Pistons are in hot pursuit of the top pick in the 2023 NBA Draft, currently holding on to the worst record in the league by two games over Houston. Of course, this won’t guarantee them Victor Wembanyama, but it will give them the best chance to land the top pick.

Meanwhile, the Hawks are currently chasing the final playoff spot in the East, which is currently held by Brooklyn. 

Let’s break down how this one should go in our free NBA picks and predictions for Pistons vs. Hawks on March 21.

Pistons vs Hawks best odds

Pistons vs Hawks picks and predictions

The Atlanta Hawks are all over the place right now, having dropped three of their last four games. With that in mind, I'd like to focus on the player props market instead.

Clint Capela has recorded 29 double-doubles in 53 starts, which is about 55% of the time if you don’t feel like doing the math. Over his last 10 games, Capela is averaging 11.6 points and 10.3 rebounds per contest. 

Capela has gone for six double-doubles over this span, and I like him to go get another one here against the Detroit Pistons. Not only did he register one against the Pistons the last time they played, but that also took place with the menacing Isaiah Stewart starting down low for Detroit. 

Stewart has missed the last 11 games for Detroit due to injury and won't appear on the floor tonight. During that stretch, Detroit has grabbed just 50% of available rebounds, ranking 16th in the NBA. The Pistons are also allowing a poor 64.1% shooting in the paint over their last 11 games, which is seventh-worst in the NBA.

Capela has been one of the few things working on a consistent basis for Atlanta lately, and I love betting on him to make his presence known tonight. 

My best bet: Clint Capela to record a double-double (-125)

Pistons vs Hawks spread analysis

The Hawks have covered just once in their last four games and failed to cover a 10-point spread against the Spurs, losing that game outright by eight points. They’re now just 5-9 against the spread over the last 14 games and are just 1-4 ATS when favored by double digits.

Dejounte Murray has been ruled out for Atlanta, making matters even worse for the home team. The Hawks are just 15-19 ATS at State Farm Arena this season.

On the other hand, the Pistons have been spotted at least 10 points over the last three games but have yet to cover. They’re now 2-7 ATS over their last nine.

Pistons vs Hawks Over/Under analysis

While this number seems high, I do think the Over is a pretty solid play. With Murray on the floor, the Hawks are running at a pace of 101.59. That’s pretty quick, but it’s not nearly as fast as the 104.27 pace rating that the Hawks have seen in the minutes that Murray sits.

Atlanta remains strong on the offensive end, boasting the eighth-best efficiency rating over the last 10 games. Even without Murray, I have faith in this team being able to score on a Pistons team ranked in the bottom half of the NBA over the same time.

We touched on the advantage Capela should have in the paint and should note that Bogdan Bogdanovic and Trae Young combined for 45 the last time these guys took on Detroit. While the Pistons lack the same kind of offensive firepower as the Hawks and come into this game a bit shorthanded, we can take solace in the fact that this team ranks 13th in pace for the season.

I expect both teams to be running up and down the floor, creating plenty of opportunities for scoring.

Pistons vs Hawks betting trend to know

The Over is 26-15 in games where Atlanta is favored. Find more NBA betting trends for Pistons vs. Hawks.

Pistons vs Hawks game info

Pistons vs Hawks key injuries

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