Pelicans vs Suns Game 5 Picks and Predictions: Phoenix Rises From the Ashes

The Phoenix Suns — by injury or otherwise — have underwhelmed in Round 1 of the NBA Playoffs, splitting the first four games with the underdog New Orleans Pelicans. We like Chris Paul & Co. to find a new gear in our betting picks tonight.

Last Updated: Apr 26, 2022 7:19 PM ET Read Time: 4 min
Chris Paul Phoenix Suns NBA Playoffs
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After decisively beating the Phoenix Suns in Game 4, the New Orleans Pelicans will now look to steal Game 5 when the teams meet at the Footprint Center on Tuesday. With this series tied at 2-2, this is quite obviously a must-win game for both of these teams. 

Will Phoenix get back on track and take advantage of its home-court advantage? Continue reading our Pelicans vs. Suns picks and predictions.  ]

Pelicans vs Suns odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

Despite being outplayed in each of the last three games of this series, the Suns opened as a 6.5-point favorite in this Game 5 meeting with the Pelicans. Since then, it has stayed mostly steady, though it can be found at Suns -7. 

The total, which opened at 216, is down to 215.5 in most places by this writing, though it is also listed all the way down at 215 at some spots.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Pelicans vs Suns predictions

Predictions made on 4/25/2022 at 6:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

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Pelicans vs Suns game info

Location: Footprint Center, Phoenix, AZ
Date: Tuesday, April 26, 2022
Tip-off: 10:00 p.m. ET
TV: TNT

Pelicans vs Suns series odds

Pelicans: +230.
Suns: -275.

Pelicans vs Suns betting preview

Key injuries

Pelicans:  Kira Lewis G (Out), Zion Williamson F (Out).
Suns: Devin Booker G (Doubtful), Dario Saric F (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Pelicans are 2-5 against the spread in their last seven games following a straight-up win of more than 10 points. Find more NBA betting trends for Pelicans vs. Suns.

Pelicans vs Suns picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Spread analysis

The Pelicans deserve a whole lot of credit for absolutely taking it to the Suns in this series, and they are absolutely looking like they have a real chance at pulling off this first-round upset. However, at some point, you’d have to expect this Phoenix team to turn things around.

For starters, the Suns were tied for seventh in the league in team 3-point percentage this year, as they knocked down 36.4% of their triples during the regular season. However, Phoenix is shooting just 29.3% from the outside in the playoffs, and they’re a perplexing 11-for-53 from deep over the last two games.

New Orleans has played some great defense in this series, but a lot of those misses from the Suns have been wide open. If Phoenix continues to get high-quality looks, the team is going to start burying them — especially at the Footprint Center. Role players are a lot more comfortable at home, and it wouldn’t be surprising if Phoenix comes bursting out of this long-range shooting slump in Game 5. 

It’s also highly unlikely that you’ll see the Pelicans shooting 42 free throws to the Suns’ 15 again. Phoenix head coach Monty Williams ripped the officiating after the Game 4 loss, and it’d be surprising if the Suns aren’t given a little more leeway to play with the type of physicality that earned them the league’s third-best defensive rating during the regular season. 

Finally, assuming Chris Paul isn’t injured — there were some rumblings about him dealing with something in his left hand throughout Game 4 — it’s not likely that you’ll see the Point God finishing with four points in a must-win Game 5, as he did on Sunday. Since he arrived in Phoenix, the Suns have relied on the veteran to come up big when needed most. Expect him to be more aggressive in his scoring attempts tonight.

That will open up the game for everybody else, and that’s clearly needed. Without Devin Booker, a lot of Phoenix’s role players have looked lost. They need Paul to guide them, and he should be able to do just that.  

Overall, you should expect a much more locked-in version of this Phoenix team, which will look to quiet the doubters and finally turn in a complete playoff performance. That should include the Suns sending some double teams to make Brandon Ingram uncomfortable, while also working harder not to get destroyed in the rebounding battle. 

Prediction: Suns -6.5 (-110 at BetMGM)

Over/Under analysis

The Over is 3-1 in the first four games of this series, but this one should be more of a low-scoring affair. The Suns will look to slow the Pelicans down with Phoenix playing a bit more physically on the defensive end. The Suns will also lean a little more on Paul on the offensive end, and that won’t just be in the fourth quarter.

Phoenix needs Paul to be aggressive in hunting down pick-and-roll opportunities with Deandre Ayton, and that should eat up quite a bit of the shot clock. 

These teams are also playing at slow paces compared to the rest of the teams in the postseason. Only four teams have played slower than these two since the playoffs started, which makes it hard to believe that the Over has hit in three of these four games. It doesn’t help Under bettors that Ingram seemingly hasn’t missed a shot since the series started, but you have to expect that he’ll slow down at some point. 

The Under is 25-9 in New Orleans’ last 34 games as a road underdog and also 5-1 in Phoenix’s last six home games. 

Prediction: Under 215.5 (-106 at TwinSpires)

Best bet

Jae Crowder scored 11 points in 29 minutes in Game 4, and he did so in a hostile environment. Crowder became a main villain to Pelicans fans with some of his on-court antics in The Big Easy, but he’ll now get to return home and play in an arena where he should be a lot more comfortable. 

Crowder, who shot 34.8% from three during the regular season, is shooting just 5.9% from deep in this series — and that is not a typo. However, the veteran forward did see one go down in the Game 4 loss, and that should make him a little more confident as we head into this massive Game 5. 

Crowder has always been an extremely streaky shooter, and the fact that he is 1-for-17 from 3-point range in this series means it could be time for the pendulum to swing in the opposite direction.

With that, look for him to knock down some big shots and help set the tone for Phoenix. He has been wide open throughout the course of this series, so it’s time for him to take advantage. 

Pick: Jae Crowder Over 10.5 points (-105 at DraftKings)

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