Our NBA player prop projections are back for tonight’s marquee matchup between the Denver Nuggets and Oklahoma City Thunder.
Our Covers prediction model has led us to a few NBA prop bets that offer solid value. We’ve evaluated the numbers, and our Nuggets vs. Thunder predictions are based solely on our data-driven model.
Read on for NBA picks for Friday, February 27, and don't forget to check out Jason Logan's Nuggets vs. Thunder predictions for tonight's clash.
Nuggets vs Thunder computer picks for February 27
 Nuggets |
 Thunder |
|---|---|
| Johnson o11.5 points -115 |
Gilgeous-Alexander u28.5 points -115 |
| Strawther o2.5 rebounds -135 |
Hartenstein o9.5 points -112 |
| Braun u1.5 made threes -145 |
Holmgren o16.5 points -120 |
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Nuggets computer picks
Cameron Johnson Over 11.5 points (-115)
Projection: 14 points
Cameron Johnson has fit seamlessly into the Denver Nuggets' rotation, and this projects as a bounce-back scoring spot even though he’s fallen short of this number in four of his last seven.
Johnson does most of his damage from beyond the arc, and that’s where the opportunity lies. The Oklahoma City Thunder has allowed nearly 13 made threes per game over its last five contests, which fits into Johnson’s role.
With the pace uptick and three-point volume in play, Johnson is in a good spot to reach at least 12 points tonight.
Julian Strawther Over 2.5 rebounds (-135)
Projection: 3.4 rebounds
Julian Strawther has quietly been productive on the glass for Denver, and this sets up as another favorable rebounding spot for the former Gonzaga standout.
He’s grabbed at least three boards in two of his last three games, and the matchup helps. Oklahoma City has allowed 44 rebounds per game over its last five, creating steady opportunities for wings and guards to chip in on the glass.
Strawther averages around 25 minutes per night, which is more than enough runway to clear a modest rebounding number. With consistent floor time and a cooperative matchup, he’ll get there again.
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Christian Braun Under 1.5 made threes (-145)
Projection: 1.1 made threes
Christian Braun has hit two or more threes in just two of his last five games, and our model doesn’t project a breakout spot.
He’s shooting a career-low 28% from deep on 2.5 attempts per game this season, and efficiency has been the bigger issue than volume. With Shai Gilgeous-Alexander back, Oklahoma City’s perimeter defense tightens up, particularly against opposing guards.
The Thunder are allowing just three made threes per game to guards, limiting clean catch-and-shoot looks, and Braun's opportunities for a strong shooting night from downtown.
Thunder computer picks
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 28.5 points (-115)
Projection: 24.7 points
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is expected back after missing nine games, but this number assumes a full workload, and that’s far from certain.
While the matchup may look favorable on paper, Oklahoma City has no reason to push its franchise player in his first game back. A managed minutes plan is the most logical approach, especially with the bigger picture in mind.
Gilgeous-Alexander has also scored fewer than 29 points in three of his last five appearances, and if his floor time is trimmed even slightly, he won’t clear his prop total.
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Isaiah Hartenstein Over 9.5 points (-112)
Projection: 11.1 points
Isaiah Hartenstein has quietly become a reliable interior scorer for Oklahoma City, and tonight shapes up as another favorable spot.
He’s reached double figures in four of his last five games, finding consistent looks around the rim and in pick-and-roll action. The matchup helps: Denver is allowing nearly 50 points per game in the paint, leaving room for physical centers to operate inside.
Hartenstein should see roughly 25 minutes, and with SGA back to draw defensive attention, the quality of his touches could improve even further.
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Chet Holmgren Over 16.5 points (-120)
Projection: 18.4 points
Chet Holmgren is coming off a quiet seven-point outing in Toronto and has cleared this scoring number just once in his last five, but this sets up as a strong rebound spot.
Holmgren’s versatility is the key. With SGA back in the lineup, Oklahoma City can fully re-engage its pick-and-roll and pick-and-pop actions, which are two areas where Holmgren thrives.
The added defensive attention on SGA should create cleaner looks both at the rim and from mid-range and allow Holmgren to get back to getting buckets for OKC.
How to watch Nuggets vs Thunder tonight
| Location | Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK |
| Date | Friday, February 27, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 9:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Not intended for use in MA.
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