The Denver Nuggets and Utah Jazz have been two of the best teams in the Western Conference this season, and they’ll now clash at Vivint Smart Home Arena in Salt Lake City, Utah on Friday, May 7. These teams take the floor at 9:00 p.m. ET, and this is an NBA betting matchup you won’t want to want to miss.
Check out our Nuggets vs. Jazz picks and predictions to get an idea of where you should put your money.
Nuggets vs Jazz odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
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NBA Sharp Money and Line Movement Report
By Patrick EversonUtah went up as 3-point chalk Thursday night at FanDuel and spent almost all day today at -4. As of 6 p.m. ET, it's two-way action with a lean toward the Jazz, who are attracting 51 percent of tickets and 54 percent of money on the spread. The total opened at 216.5, rose to 217.5, then fell to 215.5, although practically all the action is on the Over, at 88 percent of bets/89 percent of money.
Check out the full line movement for this gameNuggets at Jazz betting preview
Injuries
Nuggets: G PJ Dozier (out), G Will Barton (out), G Monte Morris (out), G Jamal Murray (out).
Jazz: G Mike Conley (questionable), G Donovan Mitchell (out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under has hit in seven of Denver’s last nine games. Find more NBA betting trends for Nuggets vs. Jazz.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
There originally seemed like a chance that Mike Conley would return for this game, but that doesn’t appear to be the case right now. Utah has been winning games without its backcourt of Conley and Donovan Mitchell, but two of the team’s last three victories came against San Antonio, and the other one came against a mediocre Toronto team. The Jazz haven’t quite beaten anybody as talented as the Nuggets, and it’s hard to imagine them doing so tonight.
Rudy Gobert is in the middle of one of the best seasons of his brilliant career, and he should hypothetically be able to make Nikola Jokic take some difficult shots in this one. However, Jokic is averaging 41.0 points per game in two meetings with Utah this season, so there’s no proof that Gobert’s ability to protect the rim has impacted the MVP frontrunner. And if the Jazz send any help in that direction, Jokic will find the right player for an open look. That has often been Michael Porter Jr., who is averaging 18.8 points per game and shooting 44.1 percent from three this year.
Also, the Nuggets have Aaron Gordon defending the perimeter now, and that gives Denver somebody to stick on Bojan Bogdanovic in this game. Bogdanovic has been on a tear recently, but the Nuggets aren’t going to let him take an endless amount of open triples.
Denver is a great spread play in tonight’s game, and the team really should win this one outright.
PREDICTION: Nuggets +3.0 (-110)
Over/Under pick
The Nuggets have been impressive defensively in their recent stretch of games, and a lot of that has to do with the team playing Facundo Campazzo extra minutes. Campazzo is a feisty point-of-attack defender, and he really scraps every second he’s on the floor. With him and the recently-acquired Gordon now mainstays in the lineup, Denver isn’t a team that opponents can attack easily.
Meanwhile, the Jazz have always been excellent defensively, and having Gobert to toss on Jokic is a luxury that not many teams have. These teams both pack a lot of punch offensively, but the Under is the right play in this one.
Seven of Denver’s last nine games have gone Under the total, and eight of Utah’s last 12 have also gone Under.
PREDICTION: Under 216.5 (-110)
Player prop pick
This was touched on a bit earlier, but Jokic has been dominant against the Jazz this season. He had 35 points against Utah on January 17, and he then dropped 47 on them on January 31. That’s not a good look for the Jazz, who are used to having Gobert shut down the opposing team’s big man.
Utah isn’t going to just let Gobert get cooked tonight, so the team will definitely make some adjustments to its defensive scheme. That would mean that somebody is open elsewhere, and Jokic is arguably the best passing big ever. Look for him to pick the Jazz apart in this game.
PREDICTION: Nikola Jokic Over 7.5 Assists (-120)
Nuggets vs Jazz betting card
- Nuggets +3.0 (-110)
- Under 216.5 (-110)
- Nikola Jokic Over 7.5 Assists (-120)
Picks made on 5/7/2021 at 1:00 a.m. ET
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