The 5 Best Bets for the 2022-23 Season: Run With the Raps' Win Total

The 2022-23 NBA season is the most wide-open field in years, with two handfuls of teams entering the season with nothing less than championship or bust expectations. With preseason basketball wrapping up on Friday, this weekend is the last chance to bet on season-long NBA odds before the real games begin in earnest on Tuesday, October 18. 

While I love the volatility of a live money bet, there’s no disputing that some of the best value can be had in the futures market before the season starts.

So, I’m sharing my five best bets for the 2022-23 NBA season.

Best bets for the 2022-23 NBA season

Denver Nuggets Over/Under 49.5 wins

Nikola Jokic dragged the Denver Nuggets to 48 wins last season with a roster that had middling and ill-fitting talent surrounding him. This season sees not only the returns of Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. but additions like Bruce Brown and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope that are set to maximize the Serbian big man’s prodigious talents.

Bruce Brown found his niche in the NBA as a short roll playmaker for the Brooklyn Nets, but he also shot north of 40% from 3-point last season and was a big-time performer in the series against the Boston Celtics. Brown’s main value will be derived from his defensive versatility and secondary playmaking, but if his scoring is legit, he quickly becomes one of the better signings of the offseason. Caldwell-Pope meanwhile is the kind of “3 and D” small-forward that figures to be a perfect fit next to Jokic.

The Nuggets finally have something approaching depth at multiple positions, as well as the capability to lean hard into defense-first units or go all-offense depending on what the matchup requires. There’s some volatility here of course with the twin returns of Murray and MPJ, but that’s counter-balanced by Nikola Jokic’s perpetually stable (and historic) production.

As I noted in my plug for Nikola Jokic’s chances for a third straight MVP in our NBA Staff Picks column, this team could absolutely win the West, and certainly has a chance at the No.1 overall seed. Easy money at 50+ wins.

Best bet: Denver Nuggets Over 49.5 wins (-140 at DraftKings)

Eastern Conference winner

To hear some say it, the Philadelphia 76ers won the offseason. They certainly made the most substantial additions to an already talented core, and the duo of James Harden and Joel Embiid was absolute dynamite in the pick and roll. While it was at times tough to watch Harden in the playoffs last season, he seems to have recovered some of his burst after being dogged by a nagging hamstring injury most of last year. 

But importantly, Harden doesn’t need to be an MVP-caliber player for this team to make the Finals, because Tyrese Maxey is a young star on the rise. Maxey’s growth has been nothing short of spectacular, and his kinetic play and relentless joie de vivre injects this 76ers team with an infectious self-confidence.

Maxey is the ideal player to capitalize on both the attention Embiid draws in the post as well as to catch and finish off Harden’s pinpoint passes from the top of the arc. The trio of Maxey, Harden, and Embiid fill out almost entirely different skill sets and areas of the court, allowing them a kind of harmonious attack that few star-laden teams can achieve.

This team won 51 games last year, in a season that included the Ben Simmons holdout and the Sixers forced into playing Matisse Thybulle, DeAndre Jordan, and Georges Niang significant minutes. Those minutes are now passing to the likes of PJ Tucker, De’Anthony Melton, and Danuel House Jr. That’s a trade-off of all one-way players (well, one “no way” guy in Jordan) to three legitimate two-way options.

Just consider what +700 means in implied odds, that’s about a 12.50% chance. To my mind, they’re only really competing with the Milwaukee Bucks and Boston Celtics at the top of the East. The Bucks have long struggled to guard Embiid, and the Celtics have a whole host of issues including a starling lack of frontcourt depth. The clearest value in the conference lies with Philadelphia.

Best bet: Philadelphia 76ers (+700 at DraftKings)

Most Improved Player

This has traditionally been a difficult award to predict, which is why the top candidates are all providing solid value. But there has been a clear pattern emerging in recent years with this award that bettors can look to for guidance. 

All three of the most recent winners (Ja Morant, Julius Randle, and Brandon Ingram) made their first All-Star team the year they won MIP. Not only that, the two other top vote-getters for the 2022 award behind Morant (Dejounte Murray and Darius Garland) also made their first All-Star appearance last season. Now more than ever this is an award granted to an All-Star caliber talent who takes a recognized leap.

That’s why Anthony Edwards is the pick here, his Most Improved Player odds priced at +900. Morant’s case is particularly instructive. Everyone knew that Morant was going to be a star before last season, but he’d yet to officially make an All-Star team. Combined with a significant leap in team success, Morant catapulted into an unassailable lead for MIP early in the year and never let go. 

Edwards is a similarly electric athlete and winning personality, who proved in the playoffs that he’s on the edge of leveling up his overall game to undeniable star level. With the Timberwolves all-in on winning this season with Rudy Gobert in the fold, this is Ant’s award to lose.

Best bet: Anthony Edwards (+900 at DraftKings)

Toronto Raptors Over/Under 45.5 wins

The Toronto Raptors are perennially underestimated. Whether it’s the Canadian broadcast market or the inability of analysts to comprehend their funky positionless basketball style, this team remains criminally underrated by sports books from year to year. To wit, the Raptors have gone Over their preseason betting line in 10 of the past 11 seasons. 

The Raptors had the point differential of a 46.5-win team last season even amidst a plethora of injuries and absences up and down the roster. Their half-court offense might not always be the prettiest, but this is a team with plenty of weapons and an unorthodox style of play that puts unprepared opponents on their heels.

With Pascal Siakam, Fred VanVleet, and OG Anunoby forming the veteran core, as well as Scottie Barnes returning to build on a promising Rookie of the Year campaign, this team is set to chase 50 wins and easily cash this ticket.

Best bet: Toronto Raptors Over 45.5 wins (−150 at DraftKings)

Chicago Bulls Over/Under 41.5 wins

While watching DeMar DeRozan quiet the naysayers with a career-best season last year was extremely fun, consider me a Chicago Bulls pessimist. The problem with Chicago is the same as their strength: they’re an ensemble group, not a solo act. That might be a strength in other sports, but in basketball, it’s a tough way to win.

While no quality team can survive a significant absence from their best player, the Bulls are vulnerable to losses by any of DeMar DeRozan, Zach LaVine, Nikola Vucevic, Alex Caruso, and of course, the already absent Lonzo Ball. 

Lonzo and Caruso were a dynamite defensive pairing, but Lonzo’s injury news places his NBA career and future health, not just his performance this season, in jeopardy. While I sincerely hope Ball returns and is better than ever, the updates on his status have been troubling.

The Bulls’ defense cratered with absences to Ball and Caruso, finishing 22nd in defense per Cleaning the Glass. And while Chicago won 46 games, their point differential was that of a 40-win team. Typically, teams don’t carry over the kind of clutch time success that made up that difference year to year. Further evidence that the Bulls weren’t as good as their hot start? They went 2-20 against playoffs teams over the course of the season.

While Bulls fans might plead that their Cinderella season was cut short by an avalanche of injuries, none of Vucevic, DeRozan, and LaVine missed significant time. If injuries to your fourth or even fifth-best players can torpedo your season, you’re a good bet to go Under.

Best bet: Chicago Bulls Under 41.5 wins (+105 at DraftKings)

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