José Soriano’s high-90s sinker and plus curveball make his Toronto Blue Jays debut a strikeout play in Philadelphia.
The Blue Jays open as +180 underdogs for their weekend series in Philadelphia on Friday, handing the ball to trade-deadline prize José Soriano for his Blue Jays debut against Philadelphia Phillies ace Zack Wheeler.
Read on for my Blue Jays vs. Phillies predictions and MLB picks for this Friday, Aug. 7 matchup.
Blue Jays vs Phillies predictions
Blue Jays vs Phillies best bet: José Soriano Over 4.5 strikeouts (-105)
José Soriano makes his much-anticipated Toronto Blue Jays debut after coming over from the Los Angeles Angels at the trade deadline, and the right-hander has nasty stuff: a sinker in the high-90s (+5 run value) and a devastating curveball (+7 run value).
He generates plenty of grounders but still misses bats, running a 9.3 K/9 this season.
That makes me surprised this strikeout number is so low, especially against a Philadelphia Phillies lineup that ranks in the upper-third for most strikeouts per game.
Soriano has cashed this over in five of his last eight starts, piling up 40 strikeouts in 40.1 innings in that span. Toronto also wore out its bullpen in an extra-innings thriller with the Chicago Cubs on Thursday, so there’s extra incentive to let him work deep.
With the hype around his debut, I’ll happily play this Over until -130.
COVERS INTEL: Soriano leans on his curveball as his whiff pitch, and most Phillies hitters, Bryce Harper included (-3 run value on 202 pitches), own negative run values against the curve this year.
Blue Jays vs Phillies same-game parlay (SGP)
For the same-game parlay, I’m taking a shot on the big road dog.
Jesús Sánchez Over 0.5 hits leads it off, and he’s a strong 9-for-25 (.360 BA) lifetime against Zack Wheeler with a homer and two doubles.
I’ll add Soriano Under 2.5 earned runs, trusting the debutant’s stuff to hold Philadelphia down early, then cap it with the Blue Jays moneyline at a juicy plus price.
Blue Jays vs Phillies SGP
- Jesús Sánchez Over 0.5 hits
- José Soriano Under 2.5 earned runs
- Blue Jays moneyline
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Blue Jays vs Phillies home run pick: Kazuma Okamoto (+440)
Wheeler is having a terrific season, but he isn’t unbreakable on the home run ball, yielding 1.1 HR/9 this year, including three over his last two starts. And Blue Jays slugger Kazuma Okamoto has the perfect profile to beat him.
Wheeler’s primary pitch is a four-seamer at average right-handed velocity (95.4 mph), and his best out pitch is a splitter that holds hitters to a .212 slug.
Okamoto won’t be overwhelmed by the velocity and can tee off on the four-seamer, a pitch he slugs .592 against with a +15 run value.
He has handled the splitter as well (2-for-5 with a homer), and if he can’t get to Wheeler, there’s a Phillies bullpen that allows a .400 slug, the ninth-worst mark in MLB.
Keep this to a quarter unit, but Okamoto has the best shot.
- Best bets: 16-14, +1.63 units
- SGPs: 3-28, -4.06 units
- HR picks: 4-26, +X.X units
Blue Jays vs Phillies odds
- Moneyline: Blue Jays +180 | Phillies -220
- Run line: Blue Jays +1.5 (-115) | Phillies -1.5 (-105)
- Over/Under: Over 8 (+100) | Under 8 (-120)
Blue Jays vs Phillies trend
The Philadelphia Phillies hitters rank 10th in MLB in strikeouts per game (8.47), a favorable edge for the José Soriano strikeout prop. Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Phillies.
How to watch Blue Jays vs Phillies and game info
| Location | Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA |
| Date | Friday, August 7, 2026 |
| First pitch | 6:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBCSP, SN |
| Blue Jays starting pitcher | Jose Soriano (9-6, 3.29 ERA) |
| Phillies starting pitcher | Zack Wheeler (10-2, 2.49 ERA) |
Blue Jays vs Phillies latest injuries
Blue Jays vs Phillies weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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