The NBA championship odds picture changed dramatically after it was reported Friday that LeBron James will sign a two-year deal with the Philadelphia 76ers.
Key Takeaways
- The 76ers went from +2,000 to +900 to win the NBA title at DraftKings.
- Polymarket users believed there was a 7% chance that James would sign with the 76ers.
- DraftKings has a couple of player-specific betting options.
The four-time champion, 41, will represent the fourth franchise of his NBA career when the 2026-27 season tips off in October.
James was not expected to sign with the 76ers, according to prediction market prices. Thursday’s market data from Polymarket showed the Miami Heat led all suitors with a 44% chance of winning James’ free-agency race for a second time. The Cleveland Cavaliers, James’ hometown club, were second with a 25% chance.
The Golden State Warriors, previously the strong favorites, had a 16% chance. The 76ers followed those three teams with a 7% chance.
Kalshi users saw the race similarly. Their probabilities included Miami (46%), Cleveland (28%), Golden State (16%), and Philadelphia (9%). The two platforms registered $269.2 million in combined trading volume.
Both operators also showed a sharp increase in the 76ers’ chances of winning the upcoming NBA Finals. Their 14% chance is more than double the 6% chance they had Thursday and trails only the Oklahoma City Thunder (24%) and San Antonio Spurs (19%).
Kalshi’s prediction markets have the Sixers at 12%, behind the Thunder (21%) and Spurs (20%). Both platforms have Philly third and ahead of the defending champion New York Knicks, the 2023-24 champion Boston Celtics, and other top contenders.
Enjoying Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account
Sportsbooks feel the effects
Prediction market sites aren’t alone in feeling the impact of the James signing.
DraftKings Sportsbook had the Sixers at +2,000 in NBA championship odds Friday morning before reports broke that James was headed to the City of Brotherly Love. That put them fifth, behind the Spurs, Thunder, Knicks, and Celtics.
The announcement almost immediately shortened Philly’s title odds to +900, tied for third on the board. Current title odds for the top contenders are as follows:
- San Antonio Spurs (+270)
- Oklahoma City Thunder (+270)
- Philadelphia 76ers (+900)
- New York Knicks (+900)
- Boston Celtics (+1,300)
- Cleveland Cavaliers (+2,500)
- Toronto Raptors (+2,500)
- Minnesota Timberwolves (+2,500)
- Detroit Pistons (+2,500)
- Denver Nuggets (+2,500)
- Miami Heat (+3,000)
- Los Angeles Lakers (+3,500)
The Sixers also have the fourth-best odds (+800) of winning at least 60 games, trailing the Thunder (-165), Spurs (-120), and Knicks (+475).
Focusing on the Eastern Conference, only the Knicks (+330) have a better chance of reaching the Finals than the Sixers (+350). The Celtics (+550), Pistons (+850), and Raptors (+900) are in close contention.
DraftKings also has a couple of player-specific betting options involving James. He is -160 (61.5% implied chance) to average 18-plus points and +200 (33.3% chance) to average at least 20.
LeBron’s last ride?
The 76ers have one of the best starting fives in basketball. Joel Embiid is a former league MVP, Jaylen Brown won the Conference Finals and Finals MVP in 2024, Tyrese Maxey averaged 28.3 points last year, VJ Edgecombe produced an impressive rookie campaign and shone in the playoffs, and James is near unanimously recognized a top-two player in NBA history.
James posted a series of messages on X on Friday morning explaining his decision to return for a 24th season after believing he was ready to retire.
“I believe I can help make the Philadelphia 76ers a championship team and I am so excited to energize a new fan base and start this incredible journey one last time,” he wrote.
I thought I was done when the season ended. I wasn't ready to announce it, and I knew I needed some time to really decide, but I was pretty sure I played my last game. I was honest at that last press conference when I said I needed to look at myself and deicide if I still love
— LeBron James (@KingJames) July 24, 2026
