Sunday's seven-game NBA slate on Nov. 8 tips off at 3:30 p.m. ET with the Philadelphia 76ers visiting the Chicago Bulls and wraps up at 9 p.m. ET with the Miami Heat taking on the Sacramento Kings.
Our NBA moneyline picks cover all seven matchups in tipoff order, with probabilities based on Polymarket market prices.
The Miami Heat are Sunday's largest favorites at 76%, while the Milwaukee Bucks are the most significant underdogs we're backing at 15%.
Find more analysis and predictions on our NBA picks page.
NBA moneyline picks: Nov. 8
For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Matchup | Pick |
|---|---|
 76ers Bulls |
24% |
 Lakers Pistons |
39% |
 Jazz Timberwolves |
17% |
 Nets Mavericks |
75% |
 Celtics Bucks |
15% |
 Pelicans Clippers |
52% |
|
|
 76% |
KingsPercentages courtesy of Polymarket, one of our best prediction market apps.
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Expert NBA moneyline picks: Nov. 8
76ers vs Bulls: Bulls
I think the market has really soured on the Chicago Bulls after several blowout losses to start the season, but they've also faced an extremely difficult schedule.
It feels like they've been stuck in an endless loop of facing the New York Knicks, Boston Celtics, and Philadelphia 76ers.
The bottom line is that Philadelphia shouldn't be trading as a 77% favorite in this spot.
At 24%, I'm backing the Bulls to leverage their youth, push the pace, and turn this game into a track meet.
Lakers vs Pistons: Lakers
This is my favorite trade on the board. I price the Los Angeles Lakers closer to a 45% underdog, making the 39% currently available on the market an attractive buy.
The two-man game between Luka Doncic and Walker Kessler should put tremendous pressure on Detroit's defense, particularly backup center Paul Reed, who is undersized for this matchup.
Jalen Duren's absence has a bigger impact on my projections than the market appears to be accounting for.
Jazz vs Timberwolves: Jazz
At 17%, I'll take the Utah Jazz against the Minnesota Timberwolves, as I price Utah closer to a 22% underdog in this matchup.
Lauri Markkanen is the key for me. His shooting ability as a 7-foot-1 forward can force Rudy Gobert away from the rim, putting tremendous pressure on Gobert's drop coverage.
If Markkanen can pull Gobert out of the paint, it should open up driving lanes for Keyonte George and Darryn Peterson, giving Utah's backcourt more opportunities to generate efficient offense.
Nets vs Mavericks: Mavericks
It's the second night of a back-to-back for the Brooklyn Nets, which means Mikel Brown Jr. will be unavailable, as he hasn't yet been cleared to play on consecutive nights.
With both Egor Demin and Brown out, the offense will have to run through Julius Randle, who will face plenty of switchable size on the interior against Cooper Flagg, PJ Washington, and Daniel Gafford.
At 75%, I see a small edge on the Mavericks and am comfortable backing Flagg and Co. at this price.
Celtics vs Bucks: Bucks
I just can't hit the button on the Boston Celtics at 86%. I price the Bucks closer to a 20% underdog, so at 15%, I'm going to roll with Milwaukee.
At my 20% projection for the Bucks, I have Boston winning 80% of the time. The Celtics are still the more likely team to win, but backing them at 86% would mean taking a position with negative expected value.
Do I expect the Bucks to win? No. But over the course of an entire NBA season, anything can happen. I've always believed in playing the math, trusting my projections, and letting the long-term results take care of themselves.
Give me the Bucks!
Pelicans vs Clippers: Pelicans
Brandon Ingram has been upgraded to doubtful and is making progress toward a return.
I factored him into my projections with a strict minutes restriction and was still seeing a slight edge on the New Orleans Pelicans at 52%.
If Ingram is ultimately ruled out, as I expect, that edge will grow. However, I always like to see where the numbers land in a worst-case scenario and make sure there's still value before pulling the trigger.
The Los Angeles Clippers also lack rim protection at the center position. Brook Lopez simply doesn't have the foot speed to keep up with Zion Williamson when he gets downhill and puts pressure on at the rim.
Heat vs Kings: Heat
The Sacramento Kings' offense runs through rookie Darius Acuff Jr. and his ability to create in isolation, but the Miami Heat boast an ideal perimeter matchup for him in Davion Mitchell.
Mitchell is an excellent point-of-attack defender, and this is also a revenge spot against the franchise that drafted him. I expect him to have some extra motivation to make life difficult for Acuff and disrupt Sacramento's offense.
At 76%, I see a small edge on the Heat that I'm comfortable exploiting.
Today's NBA moneyline combo
Lakers
Jazz
Heat
Sunday's card is loaded with underdogs that could really boost the payout on our combo, but I'm going to keep it to three teams: the Jazz, Heat, and Lakers.
I really like how Lauri Markkanen's shooting can change the geometry of Minnesota's defense and pull Rudy Gobert away from the rim, creating opportunities for Utah's offense.
As for the other two legs, I don't think I need to convince anyone to back the red-hot Luka Doncic and the Lakers as underdogs or the Heat as favorites against the Kings.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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