Mavericks vs Jazz Picks and Predictions: Doncic Fuels Another Mavs Cover

Both Dallas and Utah went into the All-Star break with a bit of momentum, but something's gotta give in this possible first-round playoff preview. Our Mavericks vs. Jazz picks explain why Luka can't be faded right now.

Last Updated: Feb 25, 2022 5:56 PM ET Read Time: 4 min
Luka Doncic Dallas Mavericks NBA
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

Two of the top teams in the Western Conference face off on Friday night as the Utah Jazz host the Dallas Mavericks.

This could be a preview of the first round of the playoffs with Utah currently fourth in the standings while Dallas is 1.5 games behind them in fifth place. NBA betting lines opened with the Jazz installed as 6-point home favorites for this contest with the Over/Under at 216.5.

Here are our best free Mavericks vs. Jazz NBA picks and predictions for Friday, February 25.

Mavericks vs Jazz odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

This line opened with the Jazz installed as 6-point favorites with the Over/Under at 216.5. As of 10:15 a.m., the line has shifted to Jazz -5.5 at some books but hasn't budged at others. When these teams previously clashed on Christmas Day in Salt Lake City, the Jazz won 120-116 but failed to cover the 13.5-point spread against a Mavs team that was missing Luka Doncic. 

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Mavericks vs Jazz predictions

Predictions made on 2/25/2022 at 10:15 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

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Mavericks vs Jazz game info

Location: Vivint Arena, Salt Lake City, UT
Date: Friday, February 25, 2022
Tip-off: 9:00 p.m. ET
TV: SportsNet Rocky Moutain, Bally Sports Southwest

Mavericks vs Jazz betting preview

Key injuries

Mavericks: Frank Ntilikina PG (Probable), Reggie Bullock SG (Questionable), Trey Burke PG (Questionable), Marquese Chriss PF (Doubtful), Tim Hardaway Jr. SG (Out).
Jazz: Jared Butler PG (Questionable), Donovan Mitchell SG (Questionable), Rudy Gay SF (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Under is 24-9 in Mavericks' last 33 games versus a team with a winning percentage above .600. Find more NBA betting trends for Mavericks vs. Jazz.

Mavericks vs Jazz picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Spread analysis

Both of these squads went into All-Star weekend with some momentum. The Jazz lost their previous game last Wednesday but had reeled off six wins in a row prior to that defeat, going 5-1 ATS over that span. Meanwhile, the Mavs went into the break going 6-1 SU and ATS. 

The Jazz could get back leading scorer Donovan Mitchell who is listed as questionable after missing the All-Star game with an upper respiratory illness. Mitchell practiced on Thursday and was removed from the injury report. If he returns, he joins a deep Jazz lineup that includes All-Star center Rudy Gobert, point guard Mike Conley, sharpshooter Bojan Bogdanovic, and reigning Sixth Man of the Year Jordan Clarkson. 

Top to bottom, Utah's lineup is better...with the exception of one guy: Luka Doncic. The All-NBA guard has been on fire lately, averaging 35.5 points, 9.8 assists, and 10.3 rebounds per game in his last 10 contests. The Mavs haven't gotten much consistent scoring besides Doncic and Jalen Brunson (16.3 ppg, 5.4 apg) but they haven't needed it with how well they've been playing defensively. 

Dallas has won 19 of its last 26 games and is holding opponents to just 100.5 points per game over that span. While the Mavs may not have the firepower to beat the Jazz, they should at least be able to keep things close with their stingy defense and Luka playing hero ball.

With Dallas going 7-2 ATS in its last nine games as an underdog and the Jazz going 7-19-1 ATS in their previous 27 contests versus a team with a winning record, take the Mavs with the points.

Prediction: Mavericks +6 (-110)

Over/Under analysis

We mentioned how lockdown the Mavs have been on defense since the calendar flipped to 2022, but the Jazz have also been playing very well on the defensive end of the floor lately. Utah is holding foes to just 100.1 ppg on 43 FG% in seven contests this month.

Now they'll take on a Mavs team that has Doncic, Brunson, and not much else. The Kristaps Porzingis experiment is over in Dallas and while the Mavs got back guard Spencer Dinwiddie in exchange for the oft-injured big man, Dinwiddie's role has been minimal so far. In addition, Tim Hardaway Jr. is done for the year with a foot injury. 

That lack of scoring depth, sluggish tempo, and vastly improved defensive play has made the Mavs very profitable for Under bettors. They've gone a league-best 37-20-2 to the Under this year and have gone below the total in five of their last seven games. Meanwhile, the Jazz are 9-1 to the Under in their last 10 games in Salt Lake City. Take the Under. 

Prediction: Under 216.5 (-110)

Best bet

The offensive burden that Doncic carries right now is insane. We're talking Houston era James Harden, 2006 Kobe Bryant, or prime Allen Iverson here. Doncic's points total tonight is set at a whopping 31.5 but he has scored at least 33 points in seven of his last nine games and there's really nobody else on Dallas that is a true scoring threat. 

The All-NBA guard has dropped at least 45 points in three of his last four contests and is averaging 28.3 field goal attempts per game over that span. He might not be particularly efficient tonight but he should still get plenty of buckets as he tries to single-handedly keep up with the Jazz. 

Pick: Doncic Over 31.5 points (-105)

NBA parlays

Did you know that if you parlayed today’s NBA Mavericks vs. Jazz predictions and picks in a single-game parlay, you could win $61.16 on a $10 bet?

Use our NBA parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.

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