Potentially without star Kawhi Leonard, the Los Angeles Clippers will look to defend their home court in a first-round NBA playoff matchup against the Dallas Mavericks.
With the uncertainty around Leonard’s status for Game 1 of this seven-game series, the NBA odds have the Mavericks as 2-point road favorites in a game Luka Doncic is poised to dominate.
Find out where my best bets lie in our free NBA picks and Mavericks vs. Clippers predictions for Sunday, April 21.
Mavericks vs Clippers predictions
My best bet
Luka Doncic Over 32.5 points (-113 at FanDuel)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
No player in the NBA has been a more prolific scorer this season than Luka Doncic. The five-time All-Star led the league in scoring in the regular season (33.9 points per game) and turned in 13 performances of 40+ points — highlighted by his 73-point game against the Hawks.
The Dallas Mavericks star is as dynamic as it gets, shooting 48.7% from the floor, 38.2% from three, and finishing the regular season with a career-high effective field goal percentage (57.3%). That was all while getting to the charity stripe at the second-highest rate per game in the NBA (8.7).
While the Los Angeles Clippers ranked Top 10 in points allowed per game this season (112.3), Ty Lue’s team was in the back half of the league in defensive rating (17th) and ranked outside the Top 10 in field goal percentage allowed, 3-point percentage allowed, and field goals allowed.
This is also a team that will likely be down Leonard and have to attempt to slow the league’s best scoring point guard. And it’s not as if L.A. was shutting down lead guards this year — the Clippers allowed the eighth-most points to point guards in the NBA (25.45).
While playoff games can see experienced teams like the Clippers play at another level, it’s Luka’s usage that should help him have a big afternoon, even if he doesn’t play up to his usual standards.
Doncic led the NBA in usage rate (35.5%) among players who played at least 40 games all while attempting the most field goals per game (23.6) and the second-most 3-point attempts (10.6) in the NBA.
That’s why Doncic’s line being at just 32.5 points is a slight surprise, given he averaged more points during the season and toasted L.A. in his three games this year.
He averaged 34 points per game in those three matchups and scored 33+ points in 41 of 70 regular-season games. Without Leonard on the court, and with a likely increase in minutes, Doncic can show why he’s an MVP candidate in Game 1.
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Mavericks vs Clippers same-game parlay (SGP)
Luka Doncic Over 32.5 points
Paul George Over 24.5 points
James Harden Over 9.5 assists
While Doncic is set to light this game up, the Clippers have the stars to do the same against a Dallas defense that allows the 11th-most points per game in the NBA (115.6). Likely down Leonard, Paul George is the next best option.
George averaged 22.6 points this season and the Mavs allow the seventh-most points to power forwards in the NBA (24.77). It helps, too, that George will have James Harden to set him up. He led the Clips with 8.5 assists in the regular season, and Dallas gives up the ninth-most assists per game (27.5).
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Mavericks vs Clippers odds
Mavericks vs Clippers live odds
Mavericks vs Clippers opening odds
- Spread: Dallas -1.5 | Los Angeles +1.5
- Moneyline: Dallas -115 | Los Angeles -105
- Over/Under: Over 226.5 | Under 226.5
Mavericks vs Clippers spread and Over/Under analysis
- There’s been plenty of line movement ahead of this Game 1 matchup with the Clippers opening as a favorite at some books, but that changed swiftly as the Mavs have bounced between -1.5 and -2.5.
- Dallas was among the best teams against the spread in the regular season at 48-34 while the Clippers struggled to cover at 38-44.
- With these star-studded lineups, the Over/Under opened as high as 226.5 with most books shifting to 223.5.
- Despite the scoring talent, neither of these teams were particularly good Over bets this season. Dallas went just 36-45-1 O/U and L.A. was 36-44-2 O/U.
Mavericks vs Clippers trend
The Mavericks have covered the spread in 24 of their last 33 games (+14.10 units / 39% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Mavericks vs. Clippers.
Mavericks vs Clippers game info
| Location: | Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date: | Sunday, 4-21-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 4:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ABC |
Mavericks vs Clippers latest injuries
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