Magic vs Grizzlies Picks and Predictions: Tough to Trust in Tyus

Orlando is playing better ball at the moment than it gets credit for.

The Orlando Magic may be out of contention in the Eastern Conference, but that hasn’t stopped them from playing some inspired basketball down the stretch.

Another big test for this young group will present itself in the form of the Grizzlies on Tuesday night in Memphis. They’re locked into a playoff spot and have just about sewn up the second seed, so will they bring their A-game here?

Let’s break down how this one should go in our NBA picks and predictions for Magic vs. Grizzlies on Tuesday, March 28.

Magic vs Grizzlies best odds

Magic vs Grizzlies picks and predictions

At first glance, you would think this is an excellent spot to hammer the Over on some Tyus Jones props. After all, the ball-dominant Ja Morant will miss this contest for the Grizzlies, which should force Jones into a bit more action.

More minutes doesn’t necessarily mean more production out of Jones, however. In the nine games he played without Morant while the latter was suspended, Jones averaged just about 16 points and eight assists, which is right around his projected points and assists output on Tuesday. On top of that, he hit the Over on this prop just four times in those nine games.

If you look at the on/off splits, you’ll see that Jones isn’t too affected in the minutes he plays without Morant. In those, he’s seeing an increase of just 0.3 points per 36 minutes, and 0.8 more field goal attempts per 36, both of which don’t even rank in the Top 6 of all Grizzlies players.

On top of this, the Magic are actually around league average on defense over the past 10 games, allowing fewer than 104 points per 100 possessions. They also rank in the top half of the league in points per game and field goal percentage allowed to opposing point guards.

This isn’t a great spot for Jones, and I recommend shorting him at this high number.

My best bet: Jones Under 23.5 Points + Assists (-109 at Caesars)

Magic vs Grizzlies spread analysis

The Grizzlies have won six straight and are 2-0 against the spread since the return of Ja Morant to the starting lineup. With that said, Morant is doubtful to play in this game due to injury, and without him in the starting lineup during this winning streak, they’ve covered just once.

Memphis’ ability to score has been at the heart of its success during its last 10 games. The offense ranks first in the league during this time with 124.1 points scored per 100 possessions, and just put up an insane 151 points against Houston the other night.

With that said, the defense has really lagged behind, sitting near the league average over that same period in time. That’s bad news with this Magic team looking inspired on both ends and winning three straight, including two against projected playoff teams.

Orlando failed to cover the line of 6.5 in an eight-point loss against Memphis earlier in the season, but I have faith in this team on Tuesday. It’s been around league average on defense in the last 10 games, and is closing the season with some good play. On top of that, the Grizzlies won’t have Morant. I’d take the points.

Magic vs Grizzlies Over/Under analysis

The Over has cashed in five of the Grizzlies’ last seven, and the Under is 4-1 in the last five for the Magic. So, what do we do?

Well, 229 represents one of the lowest numbers the Grizzlies have seen over the last couple of weeks, perhaps in a nod to the Magic defense. With that said, I’m still leaning towards the Over with a number this low.

The Magic are seventh in Pace over the last 10, and the Grizzlies a respectable 15th. On top of that, while the team does play a bit slower without Morant, the difference in Pace rating is around one possession. That’s negligible in the grand scheme of things with a number this low.

Trend bettors should note that the Over has cashed in just 45.8% of the Grizzlies’ games overall, but it’s a slightly better 16-15-2 when they’re favored at home this year.

Magic vs Grizzlies betting trend to know

The Over is 12-3-1 in the Magic's last 16 games following an SU win of more than 10 points. Find more NBA betting trends for Magic vs. Grizzlies.

Magic vs Grizzlies game info

Magic vs Grizzlies key injuries

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