Two top-tier Western Conference foes do battle at Toyota Center tonight when the Los Angeles Lakers take on the Houston Rockets.
In addition to our Lakers vs. Rockets predictions, we've got you covered with more NBA player prop projections. It's the perfect way to finalize your NBA picks for Monday, March 16.
Lakers vs Rockets computer picks for March 16
 Lakers |
 Rockets |
|---|---|
| Ayton o9.5 points -105 |
Durant o26.5 points -110 |
| James o5.5 rebounds +120 |
Thompson u19.5 points -120 |
| Hachimura u1.5 threes -160 |
Smith u14.5 points +100 |
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Lakers computer picks
Deandre Ayton Over 9.5 points (-105)
Projection: 11.1 points
Deandre Ayton is a feast-or-famine player on offense these days, but he's cleared this number in two of his last three games, narrowly missing last time out with nine points even.
The Los Angeles Lakers have been the second-highest scoring offense in the league over the last 10 games. As long as Ayton gets his minutes, he should comfortably clear 10 points, as the computer has him projected for 11.1.
LeBron James Over 5.5 rebounds (+120)
Projection: 5.7 rebounds
LeBron James may be a bit long in the tooth, but he still brings down boards at a solid clip, hauling in five-plus rebounds in four straight games.
The Over 5.5 has hit in six of his last 10 games, and he's projected for 5.7, giving us clear value at plus money.
Rui Hachimura Under 1.5 made threes (-160)
Projection: 1.1 made threes
For the season, Rui Hachimura is hitting 1.8 threes per game on 44% shooting from deep.
The Lakers have played at the fifth-slowest pace in the NBA over the last five games on the road, while the Houston Rockets boast the second-most lethargic pace all season.
Plus, the Lakers have been the worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 25 games. Offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce additional opportunities for scoring, which works against Hachimura getting his long-range shot off.
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Rockets computer picks
Kevin Durant Over 26.5 points (-110)
Projection: 26.8 points
Kevin Durant has averaged a flat 26 points during his first season in Houston and has eclipsed that number in two of his last three games.
In contrast to the Lakers, the Rockets grade out best in the NBA with 15.2 offensive rebounds per game this year, which will help KD get those extra points down low.
Amen Thompson Under 19.5 points (-120)
Projection: 17.7 points
Trends may suggest Amen Thompson is good to clear 20 points, something he's done in four of his last five games, but the computer projects 17.7, which is right around his season-long average.
This has more to do with Houston serving as the second-lowest scoring offense in the NBA over the last 20 games at home. Both teams play at a Bottom-5 tempo, which may limit Thompson's opportunities to thrive, especially if Durant is guiding the ship.
Jabari Smith Jr. Under 14.5 points (+100)
Projection: 14.4 points
The computer isn't bullish on many Rockets scorers tonight, and that includes Jabari Smith Jr., who is projected to come in just below his scoring prop.
Like with Thompson, Smith is expected to come up short due to the slowed pace, but also because the Lakers haven't been sending power forwards to the line.
Over the last 15 games, the opposing team's starting PFs have attempted 2.2 free throws per game (fewest in the NBA). This could result in a dud from Smith, who has cleared this prop in just five of his last 10 games.
How to watch Lakers vs Rockets tonight
| Location | Toyota Center, Houston, TX |
| Date | Monday, March 16, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 9:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | Peacock |
Not intended for use in MA.
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