The Dallas Mavericks have begun to trend in the wrong direction in recent weeks, losing three out of their last four to teams that were previously believed to be inferior competition. Tonight, the Mavericks are heavily favored against the Utah Jazz — but will they emerge victorious in the NBA odds?
Let's dive right into it with our NBA picks and predictions for Jazz vs. Mavericks on December 6.
Jazz vs Mavericks odds
Jazz vs Mavericks predictions
Dallas sits all the way down in 25th when it comes to efficiency on that end, and while things have marginally improved in the last five games with the Mavs posting what’s a league-average defensive rating, they haven’t exactly had to face a murderer’s row of offenses.
But while it's hard to trust Dallas' defense, it’s arguably even more difficult to have faith in the Utah Jazz's offense. The Jazz rank 25th in points per 100 possessions for the season and an even worse 29th over the last five games. They’ve attempted to build their team around 3-point shooting, sitting inside the top 10 of the league in frequency from behind the arc, but enter tonight just 23rd in success rate according to Cleaning the Glass.
It turns out that Dallas, for all its shortcomings on defense, ranks 10th against the three with opponents going 36.8% from deep in possessions that don’t involve a heave or “garbage time.” The Mavericks have been effective in this area, as well as against some mid-range shots, and their issues lie squarely down low where they’ve been torched on shots around the rim.
With all that said, the Jazz have done an excellent job in the rebounding department, ranking second to this point, and that should make things somewhat complicated for the Mavericks here. Ultimately, the game is likely to be decided by shooting efficiency, and with lower-percentage shots, there may be more misses and subsequent rebounding opportunities. The Jazz should be able to hold their own against a subpar defense, especially one that hasn't performed above average even against weaker competition in the last five games.
Unlike most other teams, Utah also hasn’t seen a large discrepancy between its shooting on the road and at home, which gives me enough confidence to back them as double-digit dogs on the spread.
My best bet: Jazz +11.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
Jazz vs Mavericks same-game parlay
Utah's stretch four is shooting it at better than 40% from downtown this year, and while his games with multiple threes are few and far between, we’ve seen plenty of volume out of Collins in recent games. Against a porous perimeter defense in Dallas, I reckon Collins will have plenty of success tonight.
The Jazz power forward has also averaged better than 10 rebounds over the past two games, and we’ve touched on the serious issues that the Mavericks have had on the glass. Without their best two players, Utah will be leaning on Collins all game long.
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Jazz vs Mavericks spread and Over/Under analysis
The total is admittedly very interesting here.
Dallas has been surprisingly much worse from three at home this year, and the Jazz — despite playing poorly on the defensive side of the floor, rank a respectable 17th in 3-point defense. Furthermore, the defensive rebounding prowess of the Jazz should take plenty of possessions away from the Mavs.
With how horrid the Jazz have been offensively, I will firmly lean towards taking the Under here.
It’s worth noting, however, that while 73% of tickets are on the Over, a whopping 86% of the cash wagered on the total over at DraftKings is on the Over. Similarly, the Mavericks have commanded 66% of the spread tickets and 87% of the cash.
This is the ultimate contrarian play, but I feel good about how both of these teams are constructed.
Jazz vs Mavericks betting trend to know
The Mavericks are just 3-5 against the spread as home favorites this season. Find more NBA betting trends for Jazz vs. Mavericks.
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Jazz vs Mavericks game info
|American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX
|Wednesday, December 6, 2023
|8:30 p.m. ET
|KJZZ, Bally Sports Southwest-Dallas
Jazz vs Mavericks latest injuries
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