The Golden State Warriors got what they wanted in the first two games of this Western Conference semifinal with the Minnesota Timberwolves.
Golden State left the Land of Lakes with a series split, taking a 1-1 stalemate back to the Bay Area for Game 3 on Saturday night.
What the Dubs didn’t want is to play this pivotal home game without superstar Stephen Curry, who is expected to sit Game 3 with a hamstring injury.
The Warriors need a team effort to make up for Curry’s lost production, and my Timberwolves vs. Warriors predictions focus on Buddy Hield, who has risen to the occasion for Golden State in the postseason.
Here are my best NBA picks for Saturday, May 10.
Who will win Timberwolves vs Warriors Game 3?
The Minnesota Timberwolves are road favorites for Game 3. Minnesota knows it faces a much tougher test from the Golden State Warriors at home, after the Dubs admittedly conceded Game 2. Moneyline pricing gives the visitor a 69% implied win probability, and I predict the T-Wolves coming away with a tightly contested victory.
Timberwolves vs Warriors prediction
My best bet: Buddy Hield Over 14.5 points (-105 at bet365)
Buddy Hield started this series with a pop, scoring 24 points in Game 1 with 22 of those tallies coming in the second half after Stephen Curry had left the game with a hamstring injury. He finished 7 for 19 from the floor with a 5-of-8 outing from 3-point range.
His Game 2 output of 15 points was tempered a bit by coach Steve Kerr’s game plan to mix up his rotation, rest key players more, and basically be happy to get out of Minnesota with a 1-1 series count.
Hield played only 29 minutes and finished just 5 for 14 from the floor, including 4 for 9 from distance, but didn’t really get into an offensive flow with so many bodies coming in and out. Once again, he did the bulk of that damage in the second half with 10 points in the Warriors’ late push.
Game 3 will have a much more cohesive game plan than scrambling without Curry in Game 1 and playing 14 different guys in Game 2. And Hield will excel with those clear expectations.
He’s very active in the offense so far versus Minnesota, sitting tied with Jimmy Butler with 33 total field goal attempts. Hield has been red hot from deep as well, making nine of his 17 3-point attempts (53%).
He gets to come home to the Chase Center, where he looked fantastic with strong efforts in Games 3 and 4 versus Houston (combined 32 points on 12 for 28 shooting).
Hield’s early player projections for Game 3 come in north of 15 points with those models projecting 32 minutes. However, he logged 40 minutes in Game 1 once Curry went down and that potential uptick in playing time lifts his forecasts beyond 18 points.
I’m being a touch conservative with my number for Hield on Saturday, calling for 17 points from Golden State’s guard. That should have his Over 14.5 points priced at -170 rather than the shorter ask of -105 at bet365.
Timberwolves vs Warriors same-game parlay
Buddy Hield 15+ points
Anthony Edwards 25+ points
Jimmy Butler 5+ assists
Hield has been on fire from 3-point range and is taking a ton of shots with Curry sidelined. His ceiling could flirt with 20 points if he continues to shoot at the same rate.
Anthony Edwards scored just 20 points in Game 2, but the Warriors were laying down, and he didn’t have to go “Full Ant-Man”. Expect him to attack on the road in Game 3.
Butler is projected for more than six assists and will touch the ball a lot more with Curry out. He’ll find open options like Hield and Jonathan Kuminga.
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Timberwolves vs Warriors odds
Timberwolves vs Warriors live odds
Timberwolves vs Warriors opening odds
- Spread: Minnesota -5 | Golden State +5
- Moneyline: Minnesota -196 | Golden State +174
- Over/Under: Over 201 | Under 201
Odds courtesy of bet365
Timberwolves vs Warriors spread and Over/Under analysis
- You can’t put too much weight in Game 2’s result, with the Warriors basically giving that game to Minnesota. Bookies opened the T-Wolves as 5-point road favorites, and we’ve seen the vig tick up from -110 to -115 on that key number, indicating a potential move to Minnesota -5.5.
- The Over/Under number opened at 201.5 points and has dropped a point to 200.5 O/U. The pace of the first two games has come in at a little quicker tempo than each team’s respective first-round series, producing a 1-1 O/U count so far.
- According to Covers Consensus, 53% of picks are taking the points with the home underdog in Game 3, while total bettors are giving the Over a 71% nod.
Timberwolves vs Warriors trend
The Warriors have gone Over the total in 12 of their last 21 playoff games as home underdogs (57%). Find more NBA betting trends for Timberwolves vs. Warriors.
How to watch Timberwolves vs Warriors
| Location | Chase Center, San Francisco, CA |
| Date | Saturday, 5-10-2025 |
| Tip-off | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ABC |
Timberwolves vs Warriors latest injuries
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