Jayson Tatum Picks, Predictions & Best Bets for Mavericks vs Celtics on March 6

Douglas Farmer - Betting Analyst at Covers
Douglas Farmer • Betting Analyst +18 years betting experience
Updated: Mar 6, 2026 , 01:39 PM ET • 4 min read

Farmer's prediction: Tatum excels in catch-and-shooting.

Jayson Tatum Boston Celtics NBA
Photo By - Reuters Connect. Jayson Tatum is expected to make his season debut against the Dallas Mavericks tonight.

Boston Celtics’ superstar Jayson Tatum may make an audacious return to the court tonight against the Dallas Mavericks.

Only 10 months removed from an Achilles tear, the mere concept of Tatum playing tonight is certainly impressive.

Any Jayson Tatum odds and NBA picks have to keep in mind that this is all ambitious, and he should be on a strict minutes limit for Friday, March 6.

Jayson Tatum prop pick

Jayson Tatum best bet: Over 1.5 threes (-130 at bet365)

Damian Lillard proved a truth about recovering from an Achilles back at All-Star Weekend: Players can shoot throughout Achilles rehab.

For a significant stretch, that is all they are allowed to do: shoot from a standstill. Some players, like Timberwolves’ second-year guard Jaylen Clark, have later credited that rehab for improving their 3-point shot.

If there is any piece of playing basketball that Jayson Tatum has done an abundance of in the last 10 months, it is shooting stationary 3-pointers and improving every piece of his catch-and-shoot mechanics. As he gets back into game shape, his shooting should be the one piece his Boston Celtics' teammates can trust out of the gates.

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Jayson Tatum same-game parlay

Jayson Tatum Over 1.5 threes

Jayson Tatum Under 12.5 points

Jayson Tatum Under 2.5 assists

While Tatum may shoot well from beyond the arc tonight, he should be cautious getting up and down the court, and the Dallas Mavericks should smother him with the ball, not overly concerned about his first step.

Mostly, though, taking Unders on Tatum props like points and assists tonight ties to the reality that we have no idea how many minutes he will play.

Boston needs to be exceptionally cautious with this bold return. Achilles injuries are ripe for re-injury, and they also expose a player’s calf to possible concern. The last thing the Celtics want is to increase the odds of another long-term injury for their franchise cornerstone.

Expect Tatum to take a handful of 3-pointers tonight and probably do little else.

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Douglas Farmer
Betting Analyst

Douglas Farmer spends his days thinking about college football and his nights thinking about the NBA. His betting habits and coverage follow that same pattern. He covered Notre Dame football for various outlets from 2008 to 2024, most notably spending eight seasons as NBC Sports’ beat writer on the Irish. That was also when his gambling focus took off. Knowing there were veteran beat writers with three decades more experience than he had, Douglas found his niche by best recognizing Notre Dame’s standing in each year’s national landscape, a complex tapestry most easily understood and remembered via betting odds.

In 2021, that interest created a freelance opportunity with Covers, a role that eventually led to Douglas joining the company full-time in 2023. In the fall, Douglas will place five or six dozen bets each week, a disproportionate amount via BetRivers because the operator tends to have lines slightly different than the rest of the market. The same can be said of Circa Sports’ futures markets.

While Douglas is an avid NBA fan and covers the league throughout the year, the vast majority of his bets are on college football, because that is the biggest key to sports betting: Know what you do not know.

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