The top of the Western Conference doesn’t look quite as imposing as we near the season’s midway point, which bodes well for the Minnesota Timberwolves ahead of tonight’s matchup with the Miami Heat.
Sitting just 2.5 games back of the No. 2 seed, Anthony Edwards and company are in position to seize control, and my Heat vs. Timberwolves predictions expect Minnesota to gain the upper hand once again after beating Miami last week.
Take a closer look with my free NBA picks ahead of this Tuesday, January 6 showdown.
Heat vs Timberwolves prediction
Heat vs Timberwolves best bet: Timberwolves -5 (-110)
There’s a real opportunity for this hungry Minnesota Timberwolves squad to make a move in the standings over the next few weeks. With the Oklahoma City Thunder seeming mortal at last, plus injuries to Nikola Jokic, Alperen Sengun, and Austin Reaves, the Wolves appear ready to pounce.
Tonight’s clash with the up-tempo Miami Heat will be another good test, but I’m laying the points with Chris Finch’s men. The hosts are 6-3 ATS in their last nine outings, and they dug out a 125-115 victory on the road against Miami on Saturday behind a combined 62 points from Anthony Edwards and Naz Reid.
Though the Heat have posted a 5-1 mark in their past six games, that stretch includes easy pickings against the New Orleans Pelicans and Indiana Pacers. Miami is 7-10 away from Kaseya Center this season, while Minnesota is 12-6 at Target Center.
Tyler Herro’s likely return here brings pros and cons. The visitors will be eager to have another playmaker on the court, but it means rejigging rotations and weakening the defense.
In contrast, the Wolves boast a nice balance on both ends of the floor. They’ve got the frontcourt depth to keep Bam Adebayo and Kel’el Ware off the glass, and I’m banking on the offense to do enough. While Ant (questionable) was a late addition to the injury report, it’s worth remembering that this is a national TV game.
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Heat vs Timberwolves same-game parlay
Rudy Gobert is averaging a double-double this season, and he’s nailed this prop in his last two games, including a 13-point, 12-rebound effort in Miami on the weekend. Against a Heat team that leads the league in field-goal attempts per contest, there should be ample work for Gobert on the boards, and that covers putbacks on the offensive end, too.
Davion Mitchell’s gritty defense will be even more valuable for Erik Spoelstra to compensate for Herro’s flaws, so I don’t see a major dip in minutes for the Miami point guard. Mitchell has cashed this Over in three of his last four outings.
Heat vs Timberwolves SGP
- Timberwolves -5
- Rudy Gobert double-double
- Davion Mitchell Over 2.5 rebounds
Our "from downtown" SGP: Hard to Randle
Julius Randle would soak up some extra touches if Edwards sits, but I’m still fading his points prop tonight. Randle has fallen short of this number in five straight, and he’s had fewer than 20 points in five of his past nine games. A head-to-head battle with Adebayo is no one’s idea of an easy task.
Heat vs Timberwolves SGP
- Timberwolves -5
- Rudy Gobert double-double
- Davion Mitchell Over 2.5 rebounds
- Julius Randle Under 23.5 points
Heat vs Timberwolves odds
- Spread: Heat +4.5 (-110) | Timberwolves -4.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Heat +155 | Timberwolves -185
- Over/Under: Over 238 (-110) | Under 238 (-110)
Heat vs Timberwolves betting trend to know
The Wolves are 7-3 SU in their last 10 meetings with the Heat. Find more NBA betting trends for Heat vs. Timberwolves.
How to watch Heat vs Timberwolves
| Location | Target Center, Minneapolis, MN |
| Date | Tuesday, January 6, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBC/Peacock |
Heat vs Timberwolves latest injuries
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