Today’s game between the Memphis Grizzlies and the Orlando Magic is not for the faint of heart.
While the 07 Seconds or Less Suns are the stylistic forebears for most contemporary NBA teams, the Grizzlies and Magic are two of the teams bucking the trend and building their identities around ponderous, bruising, and defense-first basketball.
It can be a nice change of pace, but whenever they play one of the few teams with similar inclinations, it can both also get pretty ugly.
The NBA odds have Orlando as a massive favorite on today’s spread, but I’m looking elsewhere for today’s free NBA picks.
Grizzlies vs Magic predictions
My best bet: Under 205.5 (-106 at Pinnacle)
The Memphis Grizzlies have the worst offense in the NBA. Worse than the Wizards. Worse than the Pistons. Even worse than the 29th-ranked Trail Blazers by nearly a full point. The worst.
That seems impossible until you remember that they have rostered an NBA-record 30 players this season due to the avalanche of injuries that have befallen them.
Continuity isn’t even a relevant question for the Memphis offense, it’s more a matter of whether they can get even 30+ NBA-quality minutes at every position on a given night. That's often not the case, and Desmond Bane being out Saturday due to back soreness seriously undermines their already bottom-tier offense.
The Orlando Magic are healthy, but their offense is anything but. Last night they short-circuited late against a floundering Clippers team because they couldn’t generate easy shots or turned the ball over in key moments.
The functional shooting for these teams is virtually non-existent. The best shooter in the Magic’s starting lineup is probably Jalen Suggs, who is only taking standstill-assisted threes with confidence. Without Bane, the Grizzlies' best shooter is anybody’s guess.
Both teams are also smart and ruthless defensively. They are going to lay heavily off each other in the halfcourt and dare the other team to make shots and trust their ability on the defensive glass. The spacing in this game is going to be as cramped as it gets.
Though the Grizzlies have been battered by injuries, they did just get some much-needed reinforcements when Brandon Clarke made his season debut on Wednesday. His return helps Memphis on the boards and around the hoop. He gives them strength to match against the size of the Magic frontcourt.
The combination of Clarke and Jaren Jackson Jr. finally gives the Grizzlies legitimate big-man minutes for the course of a full game.
This is also a back-to-back for Orlando after a grueling game against L.A. last night. A team already full of questionable jump shooters is going to be dealing with heavy legs.
With the combination of good to elite defenses and bad to historically poor offense, I’m taking the Under at 205.5.
Grizzlies vs Magic same-game parlay
Under 205.5
Franz Wagner Under 18.5 points
Jaren Jackson Over 1.5 blocks
Franz Wagner has had an odd year. Like many players who wildly exceed expectations in Year 1, Year 2 has not seen linear growth, but instead regression or consolidation throughout his core skills.
He’s an excellent driver and finisher, and that has only improved in Year 2, but he’s becoming borderline allergic to shooting the rock from outside the paint and opposing teams have begun to game plan for that accordingly.
The one thing the Grizzlies can offer at a better-than-average level with this group is rim protection.
Jackson Jr. is the forgotten but still reigning Defensive Player of the Year because he is an elite weak-side shot blocker with incredible timing, length, and mobility. The Grizzlies are going to lure the Magic into forcing outside shots but inevitably, they will have to score against JJJ at the rim.
With Franz scoring 15.5 points over his last 10 and only cracking 19 points twice, I like the Under. I’m also taking Jackson Jr. Over 1.5 blocks for good measure.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Grizzlies vs Magic odds and trends
Grizzlies vs Magic opening odds
- Spread: Memphis +12.5 | Orlando -12.5
- Moneyline: Memphis +600 | Orlando -900
- Over/Under: Over 205.5 | Under 205.5
Grizzlies vs Magic spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Magic opened as -12.5 point favorites which has since been bumped to -13.5.
- Orlando is 24-12 against the spread at home.
- The total came in as high as 208.5 but has been bet down as low as 205.5 at most sportsbooks.
- The Under is 21-15 in Magic home games this season.
Grizzlies vs Magic betting trend to know
The Under is 21-15 in Magic home games this season. Find more NBA betting trends for Grizzlies vs. Magic.
Grizzlies vs Magic game info
| Location: | Kia Center, Orlando, FL |
| Date: | Saturday, March 30, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports Memphis, Bally Sports Florida |
Not intended for use in MA.
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