The Milwaukee Bucks have erased the 2-0 lead that the Phoenix Suns had in the NBA Finals, and the two now meet at Phoenix Suns Arena for a pivotal Game 5 in Phoenix, Arizona on Saturday, July 17. It’s the most pivotal game of the NBA season, and the hope is that these teams give fans another classic.
Which of these teams will emerge with a 3-2 series lead? Keep reading our Bucks vs. Suns picks and predictions to find out.
Bucks vs Suns game info
• Location: Phoenix Suns Arena, Phoenix, AZ
• Date: Saturday, July 17, 2021
• Time: 9:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ABC
Bucks vs Suns odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
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NBA sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonStation Casinos sportsbooks in Las Vegas opened Phoenix -4 late Wednesday night, after the Suns' Game 4 loss left this series tied at 2. The Suns spent Friday night and early this morning at -4.5 before returning to the opener around 11:30 a.m. ET. As of 5:15 p.m. ET, Phoenix is still a 4-point favorite in Game 5. "For the most part, bettors have played the favorite in this series," Station sportsbook director Chuck Esposito told Covers. "This game, we clearly saw the line pushed up on Phoenix action. I think we're gonna need the Bucks tonight. And we're Bucks fans in the futures market. They were the forgotten team in the East, and the Suns have seen some futures money late in the regular season and during the playoffs." The total moved from 218.5 to 218 to 219. "The total ping-ponged a little bit. My guess is we'll need the Under tonight," Esposito said.
Check out the full line movement for this gameBucks vs Suns series odds
Bucks: +125
Suns: -145
Bucks vs Suns betting preview
Injuries
Bucks: G Donte DiVincenzo (out)
Suns: F Dario Saric (out)
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Betting trend to know
The Bucks are 4-1 ATS in their last five games. Find more NBA betting trends for Bucks vs. Suns.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
The Suns stormed out to a 2-0 lead in the NBA Finals, but the Bucks have evened things up and now have all the momentum in this series. Sure, Phoenix has home-court advantage as this turns into a best-of-3 series, but Milwaukee’s size has become a huge problem for Monty Williams’ team.
At the moment, it’s just hard not to back the Bucks. Giannis Antetokounmpo has imposed his will on this series, as he is absolutely feasting around the basket and making great plays on the defensive end — everybody has seen the block he had on Deandre Ayton by now. Giannis and the rest of these Bucks players have been relentless on the offensive glass, which is a weakness of the Suns right now. Phoenix has smaller wing players than Milwaukee does, and the Suns also have no backup center right now. That means that the Bucks have a massive advantage in the paint when Ayton heads to the bench.
Chris Paul is coming off an absolutely miserable Game 4 performance, and he was actually grabbing at his left hamstring as the Suns went back to the locker room at halftime. Not many people have picked up on that just yet, but the Point God didn’t move well in the second half and it’s going to take a vintage Paul performance for Phoenix to turn this around. If he’s healthy, he’s more than capable of turning one in. But he’s dealing with quite a few minor injuries.
Also, while both Giannis and Khris Middleton got hot in Game 4, the team should get a bounce-back performance offensively from Jrue Holiday. A lot of people are saying that the guard is struggling on offense because he is using his energy to stop Paul on the other end of the floor, but Holiday is missing shots right at the rim. That has nothing to do with fatigue and it will eventually correct itself. Don’t be surprised if he shows up as a scorer in Game 5. It might not be an eruption or anything, but better efficiency would be big for this team.
While the Bucks might not win outright, they should be able to hang around and make the Suns work for this one in the final minutes. These teams are extremely evenly matched, and they’re figuring each other out more and more with each passing game. That means that the double-digit wins from Games 1 to 3 are likely behind us.
PREDICTION: Bucks +4.0 (-110)
Over/Under pick
Game 4 saw these two teams combining to score 212 points, but the Suns uncharacteristically turned the ball over 17 times in that one and the Bucks shot just 40.2 percent from the floor.
Phoenix should be able to cut down on the mistakes moving forward, as a lot of them have been coming from Paul, and he doesn’t turn the ball over very often. At some point, the veteran superstar is going to start playing a little smarter. He might not be able to control whether or not he hits shots, but throwing the ball away and losing his dribble are two things he can put an end to.
And the Bucks aren’t likely to shoot that poorly again. They shot at least 45 percent from the floor in each of the previous three games in this series, so you should expect them to be close to that number again.
PREDICTION: Over 218.5 (-110)
First half pick
In Game 4, these teams combined to score just 104 points in the first half. However, the first quarter was easily the lowest-scoring one of the entire game, with the teams combining for only 43 points. It’s just not likely that they’ll struggle like that out of the gates in Game 5.
The Suns should be amped up to play in front of their home crowd, and their role players will shoot it a bit better than they did in Milwaukee. Also, the Bucks have figured out a way to get the shots they want against this Suns defense, and that isn’t likely to change all that much.
PREDICTION: Over 106.0 (-112)
Bucks vs Suns betting card
- Bucks +4.0 (-110)
- Over 218.5 (-110)
- First half Over 106.0 (-112)
Picks made on 7/15/2021 at 10:25 p.m. ET
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