The Milwaukee Bucks evened up the NBA Finals at two games apiece with a 109-103 win against the Phoenix Suns on Wednesday night. But now we head back to Phoenix where Chris Paul led the Suns to a couple of double-digit victories to begin the series.
The Suns' point guard hasn't played so well in the last two games, hitting the Under on most of his NBA betting player props — with the exception of his turnovers, which he obviously would prefer to go below the total on.
We expect CP3 to have a bounce-back performance in our best free Bucks vs. Suns NBA Finals prop picks and predictions for Game 5 on Saturday, July 17.
Bucks vs Suns game info
• Location: Phoenix Suns Arena, Phoenix, AZ
• Date: Saturday, July 17, 2021
• Time: 9:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ABC
Bucks vs Suns player prop picks
- Chris Paul Under 2.5 turnovers (-105)
- Cameron Johnson Over 9.5 points (+100)
- Khris Middleton Over 4.5 assists (-145)
(Read on for complete analysis.)
Bucks vs Suns player prop picks analysis
Chris Paul Under 2.5 turnovers (-105)
Chris Paul is one of the greatest point guards in NBA history and has been a driving force behind the Suns' terrific season, but he's looked a bit shaky in his last few games.
After Game 1 of the NBA Finals, Paul had more than two turnovers in a game just once in his previous 13 contests, averaging just 1.54 turnovers per game during that span. However, in the last three games, CP3 has turned the ball over a total of 15 times, including five turnovers in Wednesday's loss.
While there are whispers that Paul is hiding the extent of his wrist injury, it's worth noting that the ligament damage didn't seem to bother him much in a dominant Game 1 performance. Paul hasn't used that excuse, saying it was "bad decision-making" and vowing to "take care of the ball" after his uncharacteristic unforced errors in Game 4. We believe him and expect the Point God to return to his reliable self at home in Phoenix.
Cameron Johnson Over 9.5 points (+100)
The second-year forward might not get as much publicity as Phoenix's other players but he has been a crucial piece in the Suns' rotation, especially with the season-ending injury to Dario Saric.
The Over/Under on Johnson's points total is set at 9.5 and the O/U on his 3-pointers made is set at 1.5 (Over paying out at -115) and both seem tempting given his recent play.
Since the start of the Western Conference Finals, Johnson has hit double-digits in points in seven of nine games, including Game 4 on Wednesday. He's also connected on at least two 3-point shots in seven of his last 10 contests. If we had to pick just one of those two props, we'll go with his points, which is installed at plus money.
Khris Middleton Over 4.5 assists (-145)
We took the Over 5.5 on Middleton's assists total for Game 4 and lost our wager with Middleton picking up four assists. But that was largely because the Bucks swingman had the hot hand and scored 40 points on a whopping 33 shots.
During the regular season, Middleton averaged a more reasonable 15.8 field goal attempts per game, and while that number has gone up to 19.8 FGA per game during the playoffs, that still makes his volume on Wednesday an outlier.
Expect Middleton to facilitate a bit more this time around and get back to looking more like the player that averaged a career-high 5.4 assists per game during the regular season. With Middleton logging at least five assists in 11 of his last 14 playoff games, take the Over on his assists total which has now dropped down to 4.5.
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