If the definition of insanity is repeating the same process over and over while expecting a different result, then maybe the issue is me and not Jalen Brunson’s long-range stroke.
The San Antonio Spurs are doing a solid job slowing down the New York Knicks' star in the NBA Finals, including limiting him to a 4-for-16 mark from beyond the 3-point arc.
But after watching him miss multiple open looks from the perimeter — like a slot machine coming up “7, 7, Cherry” — I can’t help but bite a third time in my Jalen Brunson prop picks for Game 3.
Here are my best NBA picks for June 8.
Jalen Brunson prop pick for Game 3
Jalen Brunson best bet: Jalen Brunson Over 2.5 threes (+120 at bet365)
Three times in the fourth quarter of Game 2, I held my breath in anticipation as Jalen Brunson fired from beyond the arc. And three times I cringed in frustration as the New York Knicks' guard failed to hit his third triple.
What made those misses sting even more was that there was not a San Antonio Spurs player in the zip code. That’s been the case in many of Brunson’s 3-point attempts.
Entering tonight, 14 of Brunson’s 18 threes are graded as “open” or “wide open” with no defender within at least four feet. He’s actually been worse on 3-point shots with nobody within six feet, shooting 1-for-7 on wide-open attempts.
It’s enough for any prop bettors to blacklist Brunson’s 3-point market, but with the vig climbing on the Over 2.5 treys and the finals coming to New York, the value is there.
Through two NBA Finals games, his 3-point volume is much higher than in the previous series. Those twin eight 3PA efforts are tied as his third most active outings from distance in the playoffs, and with the Spurs not throwing as many double teams at Brunson, the space will continue to be there.
The trip to Madison Square Garden will help those triples drop tonight. On the season, Brunson does shoot better from deep at home, and in the postseason, his 3-point success spikes to 37% compared to just 30.6% on the road.
Player projections range from 2.2 to 2.7 triples, with the majority of models at 2.5 or higher. My number comes out to 2.6 threes from Brunson, which should have the Over 2.5 listed around +112.
Sportsbooks are offering that as high as +140, so shop your available operators.
Jalen Brunson same-game parlay
The Knicks step up in the crunch while the Spurs have sputtered in those closing minutes. Madison Square Garden will be electric, and if a young San Antonio team found the moment too much at home, just wait until they get a bite of the Big Apple.
That crowd is going to erupt when Brunson bangs home three triples, along with his signature celebration.
Mikal Bridges has been a mid-range monster against San Antonio, picking up the slack with the Spurs focusing defensive fire on Brunson. His projections flirt with 15 points in Game 3.
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