The Golden State Warriors have now lost eight of 10, and while it was easy to chalk up some of those losses to Draymond Green's absence following his suspension, the team now has to deal with two major injuries in the coming days and perhaps weeks.
With the Los Angeles Clippers rounding into form following the James Harden trade, might an upset in NBA odds be in the cards in Northern California tonight?
Let's dive right into it with our in-depth preview and free NBA picks for Clippers vs. Warriors on Thursday, November 30.
Clippers vs Warriors odds
Clippers vs Warriors predictions
The Golden State Warriors welcomed Draymond Green back in what turned out to be a dominant showing against the Sacramento Kings on Tuesday night. But the team wound up losing both Chris Paul and Gary Payton II to injury before eventually succumbing to Sacramento in what was a devastating loss on the road in the NBA’s In-Season Tournament.
Now, the team is in a perilous position. Golden State had already been wavering on the offensive end and will sorely miss Paul's help on the second unit and in crunch time. On top of that, this team has been a massive disappointment on defense with Payton and Paul off the floor, losing roughly five points per 100 possessions without Paul and 11 per 100 sans Payton.
The Los Angeles Clippers have been the best defense in basketball over the last six games and find themselves knocking on the door of the league’s Top 5 for the season. They’ve been able to control some of the most high-powered offenses in the game, including Sacramento’s last time out, and should continue suffocating an offense that’s been incredibly inconsistent this season.
On the other side, LA has begun to figure things out offensively with different lineup combinations and should have the chance to win this game against a defense taking a massive step back without two key guards. The Clippers like to play small and that should help them successfully exploit a depleted Golden State team.
My best bet: Clippers +4.5 (-106 at FanDuel)
Clippers vs Warriors same-game parlay
I’ve made spicier same-game parlays in the past, but there are limited choices in the player props market so we’re going to be down around +300 as we look for the smartest, safest option. Furthermore, there isn’t a huge edge on the glass for either team, so attacking this weakened Warriors perimeter defense with my parlay.
That’ll start with the pull-up king himself, Paul George. He loves to shoot from mid-range and three, and while the Warriors have done a decent enough job against the deep ball, they’ve been one of the worst in basketball at defending the mid-range shot. George may have totaled just 25 points across his last two games, but he’d hit this number in five of his previous seven contests leading into that miniature slump. We know the shot volume will be there, and he should lead the way against a wavering defense.
Then, I will go with James Harden to hit a pair of threes at this generous price, which he’s done in all but two of his 12 games this year for LA. Without Paul or Payton to guard him — and given he’s averaged 37 minutes over the past two games — he should get plenty of Cory Joseph defense here and thus have a good path to being a big contributor. He hasn’t gotten to the line too often, but he’s done a good job from outside and is coming off a game where he poured in five triples.
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Clippers vs Warriors spread and Over/Under analysis
My instinct here is to sell both offenses. The Clippers are trending upward, but they love to play out in transition. However, they haven’t had much success in this regard, and the Warriors do rank in the Top 10 when it comes to transition defense.
Yes, that number is due to regress now that two key guards are out, but this team does have decent enough depth and plays disciplined ball on that end of the court. That should keep the Clippers offense — one that’s yet to explode against an average or better defense — at bay enough to cash the Under. It’s quite telling that while these teams should play with plenty of pace, this number is quite low.
It's worth noting, too, that while 80% of the tickets at DraftKings are on the Over, just 69% of the cash is following. With that said, 52% of the tickets on the spread are on the Clippers but just 36% of the money. So, while I’m tailing the sharp bettors in one regard, I’m also fading them as they back the Warriors. Still, the data says the Warriors are a very flawed team.
Clippers vs Warriors betting trend to know
The Golden State Warriors have only hit the Moneyline in 45 of their last 89 games (-22.25 Units / -11% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Clippers vs. Warriors.
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Clippers vs Warriors game info
|Chase Center, San Francisco, CA
|Thursday, November 30, 2023
|10:00 p.m. ET
|Bally Sports SoCal, NBC Sports Bay Area
Clippers vs Warriors latest injuries
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