After the Denver Nuggets pulled a Game 3 OT win, the Oklahoma City Thunder stormed back to win an ugly Game 4 slugfest that finished with a combined 179 points, tied for the lowest total this postseason.
After reclaiming the homecourt advantage, OKC is a big home favorite in Game 5, but my Nuggets vs. Thunder predictions aren't buying this line at all.
Read my NBA picks to see why I'm backing Denver against the spread on Tuesday, May 13.
Who will win Nuggets vs Thunder Game 5?
I’m giving the edge to the home team here.
The Oklahoma City Thunder finished with the best regular-season record in the NBA at 68-14, and the team has won 74 of 91 games overall. That includes a 38-7 record at Paycom Center.
The division-rival Denver Nuggets have given the Thunder fits all season, so it wouldn’t surprise me if Denver pulls off another upset. Still, I expect the Thunder to come out with huge energy knowing they’ll have to go back to Denver for a win-or-go-home Game 6 if they lose.
Nuggets vs Thunder prediction
My best bet: Nuggets +10.5 (-110 at bet365)
Oklahoma City just won in Denver and covered a big spread in Game 2 at home, but come on. This line is just flat-out disrespectful to the Nuggets.
Denver won a championship just two years ago and has Nikola Jokic, a three-time MVP, leading the charge. Aaron Gordon is playing some of the best basketball of his life, ditto Christian Braun, and Jamal Murray always seems to have an extra gear to turn on in the playoffs.
The Nuggets have covered three of four games in this series. They’re 5-3 ATS against Oklahoma City this season, including 4-1 across the last five. The Nuggets are 11-9-1 ATS as the road underdog, 12-8 against the Northwest Division, and 6-4-1 through 11 playoff appearances. Denver has won and covered in two of four games as 10-point underdogs.
The Thunder are 30-13-2 as the home favorites, but just 9-11 against division opponents and 3-5 through eight playoff games.
I expect the Thunder to win, but Denver should keep it close, especially if the Nuggets can make things ugly with size and physicality as they did in Game 4. I can’t fathom an experienced and battle-tested Nuggets team getting blown out in a pivotal Game 5.
The betting public expects a closer game than the oddsmakers, as 65% of wagers are on the Nuggets to cover the double-digit spread. I agree with the consensus. Take the Nuggets and the points.
Nuggets vs Thunder same-game parlay
Nuggets +10.5
Aaron Gordon Over 26.5 points+rebounds+assists
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 30+ points
I highlighted the Over on Gordon’s PRA line for Game 4 at 25.5, and he went off for 15/16/6 to easily cash.
AG has been balling in the playoffs, and despite Sunday’s monster performance, this combo line has only gone up by one. Gordon has been better at home than on the road, but I’m not betting the Under for a guy who’s hit the Over in three of four games in this series and five of his last seven overall. He’s averaged 28.3 PRA across 11 playoff games, and I’m taking the Over until he burns me.
I bet on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to score 30 in Game 4, and he came up just shy with 25 points in an ugly affair. SGA led the Association in scoring at 32.7 points per game, and he was better offensively at home throughout the campaign. That’s held in the playoffs, as he's scored at least 30 points in Games 1 and 2 at Paycom Center and 25 or less in each of the last two at Denver.
He scored fewer than 30 in all four road matchups with Denver this season, but he’s reached the 30-point threshold in three of four home matchups with the Nuggets. Expect him to put up big scoring numbers in this crucial contest.
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Nuggets vs Thunder odds
Nuggets vs Thunder live odds
Nuggets vs Thunder opening odds
- Spread: Denver +10.5 (-110) | Oklahoma City -10.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Denver +400 | Oklahoma City -550
- Over/Under: Over 220.5 (-110) | Under 220.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Nuggets vs Thunder spread and Over/Under analysis
- Denver is 4-1 ATS across its last five head-to-head matchups with Oklahoma City.
- The Nuggets and Thunder have hit the Under in two straight meetings.
Nuggets vs Thunder trend
The Denver Nuggets have hit the Moneyline in 40 of their last 64 games (+13.65 Units / 7% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Nuggets vs. Thunder.
How to watch Nuggets vs Thunder
| Location | Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK |
| Date | Tuesday, 5-13-2025 |
| Tip-off | 9:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | TNT |
Nuggets vs Thunder latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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