The Denver Nuggets and Los Angeles Clippers had one of the more exciting opening games of the NBA Playoffs.
With the spread for Game 2 jumping the fence and promising another close contest, I size up the NBA player prop odds for tonight's matchup.
Here’s my best NBA player props and predictions for Clippers vs. Nuggets on Monday, April 21.
Best Clippers vs Nuggets props
Leonard Over 24.5 points (-135 at bet365)- Dunn Over 2.5 rebounds (-115 at bet365)
Jokic Over 9.5 assists (+105 at bet365)
Clippers vs Nuggets player props for April 21
Kawhi Leonard Over 24.5 points (-135 at bet365)
Kawhi Leonard exploded out of the blocks in Game 1, hanging 14 points on the Denver Nuggets in the first half. He was 6-for-9 from the field in almost 18 minutes of floor time in those two frames but cooled considerably after the break.
Kawhi played less than seven minutes and missed his only field-goal attempt in the third quarter and then struggled to regain his form down the stretch, finishing 3-for-6 in the second half and overtime to close with 22 points on 9-for-15 shooting (he also had seven turnovers).
Los Angeles Clippers head coach Tyronn Lue credits the Denver defense for throwing a wrench in Kawhi’s second-half output, but went on to say he expects Kawhi to be much more aggressive and playing in “attack mode and not caring what coverage they're in.”
Leonard, who infamously finds another gear in the playoffs, looked like one of the best players in the NBA in the final months of the schedule. He averaged 25 points in his final 22 regular season games, amassed 25 points or more in 10 of his final 15 outings, and topped his scoring prop total in six of his last nine regular-season showings.
Still, that was the regular season and postseason basketball presents a tougher defensive test. However, L.A. needs more than 15 shots attempts from Leonard, who should be putting up 20+ looks per playoff game.
I’m a big believer in folding player projections into my handicap and letting those forecasts find inefficiencies in the prop markets. But when it comes to Leonard’s scoring output tonight, I’m bucking what many of those models suggest.
Leonard’s point projections range from 22.7 to 24 points, but the market aggressively moved from the low openers of 23.5 O/U and there is strong opinion on Leonard to score more tonight.
Given his potential and Lue pushing his star to be more aggressive, Kawhi’s ceiling is well beyond those point totals and projections.
Kris Dunn Over 2.5 rebounds (-115 at bet365)
Kris Dunn’s work on both ends of the floor has bumped him into the Clippers’ starting lineup, making him a vital part of this playoff push.
He recorded 31 minutes in Game 1, scoring 10 points while snatching three rebounds. More importantly, Dunn didn’t turn the ball over — something L.A. did 20 times on Saturday. That steady play will keep his floor time high.
Dunn does the little things, especially on the glass. He’s an excellent rebounder with a nose for the ball, despite being only 6-foot-3. He averaged more than three rebounds in the regular season and when his minutes ticked up, so did his boards.
Dunn grabbed three or more rebounds in 21 of his final 32 season games and Game 2 projections range from three rebounds to as high as 4.1.
Beyond the turnover issues, Los Angeles did a good job defensively on Denver and held the best shooting team in the NBA to 43% success from the floor. That means more misses and higher chances for rebounds.
Nikola Jokic Over 9.5 assists (+105 at bet365)
Nikola Jokic missed a triple-double by one rebound in Game 1, scoring 29 points and dishing out 12 assists along with those nine rebounds in the overtime victory.
It was the sixth time Denver’s big man has registered double-digit dimes in his last nine contests and also made up half of the Nuggets’ total assists in Game 1.
Denver posted an assist-to-FGM rate of 58.5% in the opener, which was down from its average clip of 68.2%. The Nuggets didn’t shoot well, making only 43% of their looks, but the Clippers’ turnover troubles kept Denver in the game.
Those shooting woes show in Jokic’s 22 potential assists in the Game 1 and paint the possibility for more playmaking in Game 2. Player projections range from 8.2 to 10.1 helpers from the former MVP and I’m leaning toward the latter.
The market has moved toward 10+ assists, with some books as high as Over 9.5 -115 but you can find this same offering at +105 at bet365.
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