Celtics vs Trail Blazers Picks and Predictions: Poor Portland

While March Madness will be drawing the eyes of much of the basketball world this week, there are still critical games to be played down the stretch of the NBA season. Friday, March 17 features the up-and-down Boston Celtics taking on a reeling Portland Trail Blazers squad. Despite arguably the best season of Damian Lillard’s career, the Blazers will need to make a run to get the NBA Top 75 guard back into the postseason. 

The Celtics, meanwhile, have dropped a few winnable games recently and could be without MVP candidate Jayson Tatum, who suffered a hip injury in their win over the Minnesota Timberwolves on Wednesday.

Our NBA picks and predictions for Celtics vs. Trail Blazers believe that despite some inconsistent play, Boston is just too much for Portland to handle on either end of the floor.

Celtics vs Trail Blazers best odds

Celtics vs Trail Blazers picks and predictions

On the face of it, it’s hard to feel too great about either of these teams right now. While the Celtics started the season on a tear, it seems the length of the campaign following a deep (and utterly grueling) Finals run might finally be catching up to them. Boston is just 1-6 against the spread in its last seven games played on a single day of rest. 

This is game four of a six-game road trip for the Celtics, and while that’s no doubt physically draining, that might actually be good for the Celtics. Boston is better on the road against the spread of late than at home. Beantown is 5-2 ATS in its previous seven road games, which while far from impressive, is better than it’s been in TD Garden. Still, even with the Celtics not at their best, there are, as they say, levels to this.

Over Portland’s last seven games, it has a negative 12.2-point differential, which is last in the NBA over that stretch by a mile. For reference, even during this rough stretch for the Celtics, they have a +2 net rating, which makes for more than a 14-point gap in team quality in that time. It should not be shocking that over the last two weeks, the Blazers are underperforming the spread (already tilted heavily in their favor, mind you) by an average of 4.9 points per game, the 29th-worst mark in the NBA.

Portland's futile net rating is the combined result of having the 28th-ranked offense and 29th-ranked defense over that same stretch. That’s hard to do, given that multiple teams behind them in those rankings are intentionally trying to lose and resting scores of healthy players each night to do so. 

Boston has had its own inconsistencies, but the Blazers are roadkill against any team with a halfway decent plan of attack, defensive discipline, and wing attackers that can take advantage of Portland's perpetually small backcourt. Even if Tatum ultimately doesn’t play on Friday, I still think Jaylen Brown and the rest of the Celtics should ultimately cover.

My best bet: Celtics -3.5 (-115 at betway)

Celtics vs Trail Blazers spread analysis

Portland is clinging to whatever is left of its season right now. The Blazers are 31-38, leaving them 2.5 games behind the Oklahoma City Thunder for the final play-in spot. They’re also just 2-7-1 ATS over their last 10 games at Moda Center. They’ve been on the receiving end of blowout losses to the New York Knicks, New Orleans Pelicans, and (notably) the Celtics all within the last seven days.

So, while Boston’s play hasn’t been inspiring great confidence in their potential as a title contender, we’re talking about totally different tiers in terms of overall quality. A -3.5 line isn’t giving a beaten-up Boston team nearly enough credit. Boston has struggled in spots, but it’s still 4-1 ATS over their last five against teams with a losing record. 

Quality teams cover against the bad ones, and the Celtics through it all, continue to thrash opponents under .500. Conversely, the Trail Blazers are just 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight against teams over .500, they’ve lost four in a row and their two most recent wins were narrow victories over the Detroit Pistons and Orlando Magic. 

Celtics vs Trail Blazers Over/Under analysis

The Celtics have a recent tendency to play down to the level of their opposition, which more often than not means their defense has slacked off while they attempt to outscore the opposition. Teams that have no earthly business going tit for tat with Boston (like Houston, most recently) have managed to hang around if they can generate enough offense. That’s contributed to the Over going 6-1 in their last seven games against teams with a losing record. 

But it’s not totally clear that Portland can do so. The Trail Blazers are the eighth-ranked offense, a healthy enough ranking even if a Damian Lillard-led team should probably be Top-5 or bust. That ranking has been just 23rd overall since the trade deadline, a possible casualty of losing Josh Hart, who boosted the Blazers' offensive rebounding and transition attack in a way Portland has not been able to replicate since.

227.5 is a very slight line, and while I’m worried about Portland’s ability to score against the Celtics in the halfcourt, I’m encouraged by Lillard's effectiveness attacking the rim this season. With no Robert Williams III, I’d lean towards the Over.

Celtics vs Trail Blazers betting trend to know

Trail Blazers are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 home games. Find more NBA betting trends for Celtics vs. Trail Blazers.

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