Celtics vs Cavaliers Prediction, Picks, Odds for Tonight’s NBA Playoff Game

Jon Metler - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Jon Metler • Betting Analyst
May 13, 2024 • 16:16 ET • 4 min read
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This article contains predictions for an old game!

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The Cleveland Cavaliers will host the Boston Celtics at Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse tonight for Game 4 of their best-of-seven series.

Boston hasn't played many close games in these NBA Playoffs, and I'm using that to my advantage in my Celtics vs. Cavaliers prediction. Find out why I'm betting on Jaylen Brown to go Over 2.5 assists in my NBA picks on Monday, May 13.

Celtics vs Cavaliers prediction

My best bet
Jaylen Brown Over 2.5 assists (-125 at BetMGM)

Best odds available in your region

My analysis
Tom Thibodeau has been under fire for making his starters essentially play the entirety of every game. This has caused sportsbooks to price their player props as if they're playing 40+ minutes per night. That's not the case for the Boston Celtics, and the score of games is likely why. Every single N.Y. game comes down to the final possession, whereas the Celtics games are all blowouts.

Even the games the Celtics lost were complete blowouts that saw the starters play decreased minutes. 

It creates a scenario for someone like Jaylen Brown, who isn't playing heavy minutes and going way Over his totals, so we don't need as many minutes from Brown to establish an edge. I'm playing the Over on his assists total of 2.5 at -125 because we only need around 36 minutes from Brown to get what we're looking for.

When it's the NBA Playoffs, you're on the road, and the highest-paid player in the NBA, 36 minutes isn't asking for a lot. Brown just hasn't seen big minutes because of the scores of previous games, but even if you look at Game 3 — which was relatively close — Brown played 41.

Why the assists prop? Well, Brown is one of those players who, if something isn't making him pass, he'll take the shots and not get many assists. The Cleveland Cavaliers have rim protection in Evan Mobley, who can force a pass from Brown.

He's averaging 6.3 potential assists per game in the series, but I also believe Jarrett Allen could return on Monday. With Mobley and Allen in the paint, Brown should be looking for more dump-offs or kick-outs for shooters.

Typically, throwing another rim protector into the mix such as Allen is a negative for an assists prop, but for someone like Brown, I think it might actually help him.

Brown is someone who can drive the lane and post up a bit against this Cavaliers' defense, and the majority of his potential assists come on 3-point attempts that he generated. The Celtics don't have a lob threat that Allen is all of a sudden taking away from Brown and hurting his ability to convert potential assists. If anything, he should just force more passes on his drives to the dunker's spot or shooters.

Brown is projected to have 3.4 assists which allows us to price the Over 2.5 assists at -184.

Celtics vs Cavaliers same-game parlay (SGP)

Jaylen Brown Over 2.5 assists 

Max Strus Over 2.5 assists

Cavaliers +8.5

Strus Over 2.5 assists was one of my best bets for the day, and you can read a full breakdown in our daily NBA player props article. Essentially, I believe Strus' role as the screen in P&R will offer him opportunities to give off extra passes, which should lead to more assists off the pop.

A close game helps both of these props because it should elevate the minutes of both Brown and Strus — something we haven't seen because of how this series has played out and their previous ones against the Heat and Magic. 

A close game is very much our friend on Monday.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Celtics vs Cavaliers odds

Celtics vs Cavaliers live odds

Get the latest Celtics vs Cavaliers NBA playoff odds for Game 4.

Celtics vs Cavaliers opening odds

  • Spread: Boston -8 (-110) | Cleveland +8 (-110)
  • Moneyline: Boston -350 | Cleveland +280
  • Over/Under: Over 208.5 (-110) | Under 208.5 (-110)

Celtics vs Cavaliers spread and Over/Under analysis

  • The Celtics opened as an 8-point favorite on FanDuel and are now trading as an 8.5-point favorite.
  • This line didn't really move when the news dropped about Donovan Mitchell missing shootaround, which tells me he is most likely still playing.
  • The total opened at 208.5 at FanDuel and is now trading at 207.
  • We are still awaiting official news on whether Allen will suit up for the Cavaliers on Monday, and his status should cause a slight move in the odds when it is officially announced.

Celtics vs Cavaliers trend

The Celtics have hit the first-half moneyline in 39 of their last 45 away games (+30.65 Units / 26% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Celtics vs. Cavaliers.

Celtics vs Cavaliers game info

Location: Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse, Cleveland, OH
Date: Monday, 5-13-2024
Tip-off: 7:00 p.m. ET
TV: TNT

Celtics vs Cavaliers latest injuries

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Betting Analyst

Having played, coached, and officiated basketball, Jon immediately turned his attention to the NBA when he entered the sports betting space. Sports betting has been a part of his life for over 14 years, and he specializes in futures markets and player props, particularly in the NBA. In pursuit of value, he keeps a close eye on movements in the betting markets. He believes strongly in analytics and staying ahead of the curve and, when possible, lets the numbers do the talking.

Jon hosts the NBA Prop Picks show powered by EV Analytics, which airs on the Covers YouTube channel, and he is also a regular guest on Before You Bet with Joe Osborne.

Jon keeps his eye on the NBA betting markets 365 days a year and uses 10-plus sportsbooks to always shop around for the best price for whichever bet he is looking to place. If there are NBA games on for that current day, you can guarantee that Jon woke up way too early, has already had some caffeine, and is ready to begin placing bets on NBA player props.

His favorite sportsbooks are Pinnacle, Caesars, and Betano, with the first two being where he places the majority of his bets, while Betano sneaks into the top three because of their creative futures markets for the NBA.

Before joining Covers in December 2023, Jon worked as a sports betting analyst at Sportsbook Review. He also holds a Bachelor's degree from the University of Windsor, where he studied Human Kinetics with a focus on Sports Studies.

Jon's top piece of advice for sports bettors: "Any outcome is possible in sports betting; you're just hunting for one that is more probable than the sportsbooks have it priced."

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