Celtics vs 76ers Game 3 Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Embiid Protects His House

After a surprising Game 1 victory, the Philadelphia 76ers were unceremoniously blown off the court by the Boston Celtics in Game 2. But though the Sixers lost, they have to be invigorated by the return of newly minted 2023 NBA MVP Joel Embiid, who played despite suffering a Grade 2 LCL sprain less than two weeks ago.

With the 76ers stealing homecourt, the Celtics will have to try to repeat their otherworldly offensive performance in the most hostile arena in the NBA in order to regain control of the series.

Our NBA picks and predictions for Game 3 of Celtics vs. 76ers on Friday, May 5 believe Embiid’s injury is likely to push him towards a more defensive style of play.

Celtics vs 76ers Game 3 best odds

Celtics vs 76ers Game 3 picks and predictions

As shocking and impressive as James Harden’s incandescent Game 1 upset of the Boston Celtics was, nobody was fooling themselves. Unless Joel Embiid returned from his knee injury and returned fast, the Philadelphia 76ers would lose the series sooner or later. So it was a pleasant surprise that Embiid announced his return to action shortly after receiving his MVP trophy. But as heartening as it was to see him on the court, it’s clear there are going to be some growing pains.

Embiid only took nine shots in 26 minutes of action in Game 2 and grabbed just three rebounds. He was fundamentally not the same player that was able to drop 52 points in a victory over the Celtics just a month ago.

Embiid’s jumper was off and he seemed to be struggling to adapt to playing in a knee brace. Embiid’s balance and conditioning are clearly not where he wants them to be, but that doesn’t mean he can’t impact winning. 

The best path the 76ers have to win Game 3 is to decrease Embiid’s offensive load, giving him more energy to maintain a dominant interior defensive presence. Embiid is averaging three blocks per game in the playoffs, and there’s reason to think that his five-block return in Game 2 is going to be closer to the new norm.

As we saw in Game 1 of the Lakers vs. Warriors series, even a team that thrives on shooting perimeter shots can have their offense seriously disrupted if the opposing team has a player that can shut down nearly all shot attempts at the rim. So while Embiid might not be able to generate the same kind of MVP offense, at least not in the short term, he can help Philadelphia win by being a defensive stopper. 

Embiid’s difficulties on offense did not impact his ability to protect the rim. The Celtics went at him early and often to test his mobility. His five blocks Included a play against all of the Celtics’ featured players, including the stuffing of a Jaylen Brown dunk attempt, a Marcus Smart jumper, as well as a foray to the rim by Jayson Tatum.  

Embiid’s balance might be affecting his jumper, but his size, timing, and ability to explode over a small distance remain perfectly intact. While the Celtics will try to use Al Horford to stretch him out of the paint at times, there are also stretches where Robert Williams III is the sole big, allowing Embiid to camp around the basket on defense.

Embiid averaged a steal per game during the regular season, and by opting for the steals and blocks prop we’re getting a much better price. But Embiid is more than likely to hit the Over on this prop on the back of blocks alone.

My best bet: Embiid Over 2.5 Steals + Blocks (-118)

Celtics vs 76ers same-game parlay

Joel Embiid Under 26.5 points

Malcolm Brogdon Over 14.5 points

Jaylen Brown Over 24.5 points

+575 at DraftKings

Today’s same-game parlay builds on the understanding that Embiid is not likely to be the same dominant scorer we saw before the LCL sprain, which is why I like his points Under. The other two pieces are all about the dominant play of Jaylen Brown and Malcolm Brogdon in the postseason. 

Brogdon and Brown are different in many ways, but their shared slashing style is central to unlocking Boston’s overall offensive flow. With Jayson Tatum always drawing the toughest defensive assignment, these two have been repeatedly put in strong positions to succeed throughout the playoffs. Brown is now up to 29.2 points per game over his last five contests, and is up to 64.6% true shooting for the playoffs. Brogdon has totaled 17.6 points per game over that same span.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Celtics vs 76ers Game 3 spread and Over/Under analysis

It's always difficult to know what to take away from a blowout like Game 2. The Celtics were as high as -10.5 points favorites to win that game before Embiid’s announced return, dropping all the way to just -1.5 for Game 3. That Boston won and dominated should not be a great indicator of what might happen in Game 3, as after last night’s games, home teams that lose Game 1 are now 20-2 against the spread and 21-2 straight up in Game 2s. 

When the home favorite drops the first game, they come out with desperation, and the opponent struggles with a psychological letdown. That doesn’t mean the Celtics won’t cover again, of course. They’ve had the 76ers number in recent meetings, going 6-1 ATS in their last seven matchups.

The total has come in between 213.5 and 215, with the number moving downwards at most sportsbooks. That seems a touch low to me, as the 76ers should get a boost from playing at home, and the Celtics' offensive formula has proven to be nigh impossible to stop through eight playoff games. 

The Over is 5-1 in Boston’s last six games overall, and 8-1 in their last nine road games. My hesitancy to make the Over a best bet is the snail's pace that Philadelphia plays with. The 76ers are the slowest pace team remaining in the playoffs at just 91.33 possessions per game, similar to their regular season mark. 

Celtics vs 76ers betting trend to know

The Celtics are 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. Find more NBA betting trends for Celtics vs. 76ers.

Celtics vs 76ers Game 3 game info

Celtics vs 76ers Game 3 key injuries

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