Cavaliers vs Heat Picks and Predictions: Oladipo Fires Away From Beyond the Arc

Miami is out to get revenge on a Cleveland team that beat it just two days ago. With Robinson still out, Victor Oladipo continues to see a climb in minutes, and our NBA betting picks expect him to take full advantage of his extra floor time.

Mar 10, 2023 • 15:32 ET • 4 min read
Victor Oladipo Miami Heat NBA
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The Cleveland Cavaliers were victorious against the Miami Heat on Wednesday, but things could be different this time around.

Cleveland is trying desperately to hang on to its fourth-place spot in the Eastern Conference after a strong charge from the fifth-place Knicks, while Miami is simply trying to avoid the play-in tournament, sitting in seventh place.

With major playoff implications, and with these two teams meeting in a close game just a couple of nights ago, we should be in for a treat.

Let’s break down how this one should go in our Cavaliers vs. Heat NBA picks and predictions.

Cavaliers vs Heat best odds

Cavaliers vs Heat picks and predictions

Playing the prop market is fun here considering these two teams just met a couple of nights ago in Miami. The Heat had Kevin Love in the lineup for that one, and still didn’t have Duncan Robinson back from injury. Well, Robinson has been ruled out for this contest with an illness, meaning we should be able to expect the same rotation from Erik Spoelstra.

Despite coming off the bench, Victor Oladipo was called upon to play 32 minutes, which was the third-heaviest workload on the team that night. This isn’t anything new, however: he’s been the primary replacement for Robinson.

In the past seven games — which have seen Robinson play just 27 minutes across three games — Oladipo has averaged 24.7 minutes. In those minutes, he’s taking 4.9 threes per game, shooting it at 38.2%.

Oladipo has now hit multiple threes in three of the last four, and I think getting him to do so again at plus money is highway robbery. The Cavaliers have owned one of the league’s worst 3-point defenses in the NBA this season, and they’ve allowed around 37% shooting from deep over the last seven games, which makes them one of the worst in the NBA at guarding the deep ball.

The Heat didn’t shoot very well last time out against Cleveland, but if the recent numbers have anything to say about it, we should see Miami’s shooting come back to the median. You won’t find a better place to bet on that than with Oladipo, who took eight threes against The Land last game.

My best bet: Victor Oladipo Over 1.5 threes made (+130)

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Cavaliers vs Heat spread analysis

The Cavs now own a 2-1 head-to-head against the Heat this season with just a three-point loss keeping them from an unblemished record. While that’s all well and good, Miami did an exceptional job against Cleveland on Wednesday night and should be respected here.

Donovan Mitchell was held to just 18 points, and the Cavaliers in general shot 32.1% from three. Miami out-rebounded Cleveland 37-32, playing a very good game but ultimately falling short.

The Cavs’ offense is in the gutter at the moment, ranking just 13th over the last 10 games, while their defense has taken a slight step back with a 111.1 efficiency rating over that span. Miami normally struggles to score, but given the fact that it loves to shoot the three and will be up against a very poor 3-point defense, it has to be given a shot here.

I’d lean towards the points with the Heat.

Cavaliers vs Heat Over/Under analysis

I noted above how both of these teams have dipped defensively, but the Heat have really been bad on that end. They’re 24th over the last 10 games with 119.1 points allowed per 100 possessions, which is absolutely awful when you consider this is a Top 10 unit for the season.

Some injuries have hurt them, but the fact of the matter is that this team is allowing a ton of points inside and shooting threes to try to get back into the game. 

I am a fan of the Over here, considering both defenses are in a rut and considering the last two games — which have gone Under — seem to coincide with abnormally-bad Mitchell shooting nights. Should he return to form as we would expect, it should give this game the jolt it needs to cash the Over.

Cavaliers vs Heat betting trend to know

Cleveland is just 14-17-2 against the spread on the road this year. Find more NBA betting trends for Cavaliers vs. Heat.

Cavaliers vs Heat game info

Location: Miami-Dade Arena, Miami, FL
Date: Friday, March 10, 2023
Tip-off: 8:00 p.m. ET

Cavaliers vs Heat key injuries

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