NASCAR Cup Series fans are hoping the Window World 450 at North Wilkesboro Speedway can match the excitement of last week's Quaker State 400 (while ending before 1:45 a.m. ET) on Sunday, July 19.
I've sorted through the NASCAR Cup Series odds and am ready to deliver my Window World 450 long-shot predictions and sleeper picks.
See why my free picks are targeting Austin Dillon this week.
NASCAR Window World 450 sleeper picks
- Ty Gibbs (+1567)
- Carson Hocevar (+3233)
- Austin Dillon (+9900)
Picks made on 7-17.
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NASCAR Window World 450 long-shot predictions
Sleeper pick to win: Ty Gibbs
+1567 at Kalshi
Ty Gibbs is a solid 10th among active full-time drivers in average finishing position on short tracks, and ninth in average rating. He's stepped up his game recently, posting his first career victory at the last short track the NASCAR Cup Series visited in Bristol Motor Speedway.
While Gibbs could only manage a 15th-place finish the last time the drivers took to North Wilkesboro Speedway in the 2025 All-Star Race, he did dominate the 2024 All-Star Open with a perfect driver rating. He ran second in that race with 53 laps led the year before.
After some ups-and-downs following his maiden-breaking score in April, Gibbs is back to his consistent ways, posting three straight Top 10s heading into Sunday. Play to +1000.
Sleeper pick to win: Carson Hocevar
+3233 at Kalshi
Carson Hocevar had the lead at the white flag in Atlanta last week but got hung out to dry, seemingly because his devil-may-care attitude is rubbing the competition the wrong way.
Fortunately for the No. 77 driver, he doesn't need to rely on the draft to get a Window World 450 win.
Hocevar was a strong winner of the 2025 All-Star Open the last time he was at North Wilkesboro, leading 46 laps. He was 10th at Bristol with two stage placings at the last short track on the schedule, and has posted some solid results at Richmond, the track most similar to NWS, over the last two years.
Play to +2000.
Sleeper pick to win: Austin Dillon
+9900 at Kalshi
Austin Dillon has won each of the last two NASCAR Cup Series races at Richmond. That's enough for me to want to take a flyer on the No. 3 this week.
Richmond, a 3/4-mile oval, shares some similarities with the 5/8-mile North Wilkesboro Speedway. "The Action Track" also yields tire-wear races, and the banking is also relatively flat compared to Bristol.
While there's not much to like about Dillon's 2026 season overall, it is encouraging that he exits one of his better efforts of the year, a seventh at Atlanta. Play to +5000.
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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