Toyota Owners 400: Richmond Picks, Betting Odds & Race Preview

This season's circuit is in full swing as the NASCAR Cup Series odds continue to take shape heading into the Totoya Owners 400, his weekend at Richmond Raceway. 

Bettors can get ready for plenty of action in this short-track sprint, with a crowded tier of favorites littered with past Richmond winners.

Who brings the best bang for your buck? Join us as we break down the field with the Toyota Owners 400 odds, and bring you the best NASCAR betting picks for this Sunday, March 31 race.

Odds to win 2024 Toyota Owners 400

Driver
Kyle Larson	+400	+600
Martin Truex Jr.	+550	+475
Denny Hamlin	+650	+650
Christopher Bell	+700	+625
Ty Gibbs	+1,000	+1,100
Chase Elliott	+1,200	+1,800
Joey Logano	+1,400	+1,600
Chris Buescher	+1,400	+1,300
Brad Keselowski	+1,400	+1,300
Alex Bowman	+1,400	+1,600
William Byron	+1,600	+1,600
Ryan Blaney	+1,800	+2,200
Tyler Reddick	+2,200	+2,000
Ross Chastain	+2,200	+2,200
Kyle Busch	+2,200	+2,500
Bubba Wallace	+2,200	+2,000
Josh Berry	+3,500	+5,000
Chase Briscoe	+8,000	+10,000
Noah Gragson	+10,000	+10,000
Michael McDowell	+10,000	+10,000

Odds as of March 31, 2024.

Toyota Owners 400 field

Coincidentally, three Toyota drivers find themselves atop the odds board.

Denny Hamlin's already bested his uncharacteristically slow starts in each of the past two seasons, logging a win at Bristol two weeks ago, with books tabbing him as the favorite to add another this weekend. Hamlin's a former champ in this race (2022); one of four Richmond wins to his credit, so he's certainly got the pedigree.

Joining him at better than 5-to-1 odds is Christopher Bell, who, despite not having any Richmond wins in his young Cup Series career, has been on fire this season, winning Daytona Duel No. 2 before taking Top-3 finishes (including a Phoenix win) in three of six races thus far.

Three other drivers (Martin Truex Jr., Ty Gibbs, Kyle Larson) are available below 10:1, with Truex having seen the most Richmond success, logging three wins, including a sweep of 2019's races here. Larson's the defending champ in this race, and will look to prove that Chevy can contend, despite the race's sponsorship.

Overall, this field continues to represent this season's trend of non-linear odds distribution, with a relatively large gap between the second tier of favorites and long shots. While a crowded middle tier of drivers used to populate the +2,000 to +4,500 range in previous years, DraftKings is offering just two such selections for Richmond.

Toyota Owners 400 expert picks and predictions

Odds listed below courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook, March 26, 2024.

Toyota Owners 400 pre-qualifying favorites

Denny Hamlin (+425)
He was runner-up in both races in 2021 including leading 207 laps in the spring and 197 more circuits in the fall. Hamlin won the 2022 spring race, was fourth in the summer that season, and runner-up last summer to tally 12 Top-6 finishes in his last 16 Richmond starts. The only reason that it's not 13-for-16 is the fact that he had troubles on pit lane last spring. Hamlin won the second stage and led 71 laps, but that final penalty was a dagger. He dominated in Bristol too. 

Christopher Bell (+425)
Bell has nine Top-6 finishes in 12 Richmond starts, which includes five Xfinity Series starts. He was fourth and third in 2021, sixth and second in 2022, and fourth last spring. He's also led at least 10 laps in three of the last five Richmond races and has done so despite not having a Top-5 starting spot. He won the race at Phoenix and was 10th in Bristol. 

Martin Truex Jr. (+600)
He has to be one of the favorites, right? Truex has nine Top-7 finishes in his last 10 Richmond starts, including three wins and a runner-up in that span. He had this race essentially won last spring, but a late-race caution flew ended any shot of doing so. That's because he had no tires left to change, which dropped him from first to 11th in the end. He finished seventh at Phoenix and runner-up at Bristol this season on short tracks. 

Toyota Owners 400 sleepers

Chris Buescher (+1,100)
He has two Top-3 finishes in his last three Richmond starts, including a win after leading 88 laps last summer. He finished second in the second stage. In a pair of short track starts this season, he’s finished second (Phoenix) and seventh (Bristol). 

Brad Keselowski (+1,300)
He was 10th and sixth, respectively, a year ago. That sixth should have been a win. He won the second stage and led 102 laps overall. A bad pit stop in the final stage halted any chances of ending his winless streak. Keselowski was fourth and third, respectively, at Phoenix and Bristol this season. 

Josh Berry (+6,500)
Kevin Harvick was strong in this car in the past at Richmond. Berry was strong a couple weeks ago in Bristol and finished runner-up in Chase Elliott’s car here last spring.

Toyota Owners 400 fades

Kyle Larson (+900)
He has just two combined Top-5 finishes in his last 10 Richmond starts. Both were in the last two spring races which includes a fifth-place run in 2022 and a win after leading 93 laps last year. I don’t think he goes two straight on Sunday night. 

William Byron (+1,100)
He used strategy and strategy only to lead 122 laps in his only Top-5 in 11 Richmond starts in the 2022 spring race. Again, he didn’t have a Top-5 car that day in terms of speed and chances to win. Last spring, he did. He led a race-high 117 laps and finished first and third in the two stages before being spun by Christopher Bell on a late race restart.

Prior to the late caution, he was going to finish second. After, he was going to win. Then came Bell's bumper... He’s also only had one Top-5 finish in 13 Richmond starts, and that’s including his pair of Xfinity Series starts. He was 18th in Phoenix and 35th in Bristol. I don’t think he goes two straight on the season...

Ryan Blaney (+1,500)
Arguably one of his worst tracks. He’s never had a Top-5 finish in 15 tries. Last season, he was 26th and 14th, respectively.

Kyle Busch (+1,500)
He called short tracks their worst. Busch qualified on the front row in both Richmond races last season and finished 14th and third in them. He led one combined lap. In fact, he’s led just two laps in his last four Richmond starts. Busch was 22nd in Phoenix and 25th in Bristol this season.

Chase Elliott (+1,700)
Elliott didn't race his car last spring, but his car finished second. That's partly the luck of pit strategy to get Josh Berry there. At Richmond, Elliott hasn’t finished better than fourth since a runner-up in this 2018 spring race. He’s finished 12th or worse in five of his last eight Richmond tries.

Toyota Owners 400 prop pick

Ross Chastain Top-5 Finish (+250)

Worth a look. Chastain  (+2,000 outright win) was third last spring after leading 16 laps. He finished third and fifth, respectively, in the pair of stages. He just finished sixth at Phoenix too. While I don’t foresee an outright win, a Top-5 finish is plausible for a driver with four Top-7 finishes in the last five weeks of action.

Pick: Chastain Top-5 finish (+250 at DraftKings)

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Richmond Raceway track analysis

The race moves back to under the lights, which creates a track with more grip. That could, in theory, change some things than it would look under daytime conditions.

Last year’s spring race was a Joe Gibbs Racing vs. Hendrick Motorsports battle with late-race cautions helping HMS reach victory lane.The summer race was heavily dominated by RFK Racing.

The Toyotas are the heavy favorites, with them sweeping the action at Richmond in 2018 and 2019 to go along with nine trips to victory lane in the last 17 starts on the .75-mile D-Shaped Virginia oval, including the spring 2022. JGR went 1-2-3-4 across the finish line in Sept. 2019 as their top feat. They had some of the fastest race cars here this past April too, but bad luck took them out of contention via Denny Hamlin’s pit road woes and Martin Truex Jr. not having a set of tires left for the final pit stops.

Toyota is also 2-for-2 on short tracks this season. 

Toyota Owners 400 trends

• It’s a track that doesn’t lend a helping hand to sleeper values. That’s because Richmond doesn’t typically allow for smaller teams to prevail. Just look at the recent winners: Joe Gibbs Racing, Team Penske, Hendrick Motorsports, and Stewart-Haas Racing have won 10 of the last 11 and 14 of the last 16 overall. 
  
  
• RFK Racing could be potentially seen as an upset, but they’re among the best Ford teams on short tracks, which leads me to believe their August win last year wasn’t as unlikely as it seems. 

How to make Toyota Owners 400 picks

NASCAR betting is a nuanced process that can take any number of factors into account, and spans several different types of bets. Fortunately, our How to Bet NASCAR guide walks you through the basics, including how to read odds, different markets that are available, and what to consider when making your bets. 

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