NASCAR Food City 500 Predictions, Odds & Results — Bristol Motor Speedway

Robert Criscola - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Robert Criscola • Betting Analyst 11+ years betting experience
Updated: Apr 12, 2026 , 06:17 PM ET • 3 min read

Check out Robert Criscola's updated picks and betting angles from today's race at Bristol Motor Speedway, which was won by Ty Gibbs.

NASCAR Cup Series Ty Gibbs
Photo By - Reuters Connect. Joe Gibbs Racing driver Ty Gibbs (54) out of turn four at Martinsville Speedway

Last updated: 4-12-2026 at 6:17 p.m. ET.

🏁Food City 500: Key takeaways

  • Outright winner: Ty Gibbs (+700) barely held off Ryan Blaney on the final lap for his first career victory.
  • Podium: Kyle Larson finished third to round out the podium behind Gibbs and Blaney.
  • Track: Tire management and fast pit stops help avoid loss of track position.
  • Weather: Calm and clear with partly sunny skies.

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Food City 500 odds: favorites & full field

The Food City 500 runs at 3:00 p.m. ET on FS1. Below are the latest outright odds, followed by the picks and market-by-market best bets we like this week.

Driver DraftKings
Ryan Blaney +350
Kyle Larson +400
Denny Hamlin +600
Ty Gibbs +700
Christopher Bell +800
Tyler Reddick +1000
Carson Hocevar +1100
Chase Briscoe +1200
Chase Elliott +2000
William Byron +2500
Joey Logano +2800
Bubba Wallace +2800
Brad Keselowski +2800
Chris Buescher +3000
Ross Chastain +3500
Austin Cindric +3500
Ryan Preece +4000
Alex Bowman +4000
Kyle Busch +5500
Josh Berry +10000

Odds as of 4-12.

Check out the full Food City 500 qualifying order here. 


Best bets card (updated Sunday)

  • Top 5: Christopher Bell (+110)
  • Outright: Denny Hamlin (+550)
  • Outright: Chase Briscoe (+1400)
  • Top 5: Ryan Blaney (-110)
  • Matchup: William Byron (+130) over Ty Gibbs

Who's hot? Who's not?

  • 🔥 William Byron — NASCAR's "Mr. Consistent" rides a four-race Top 10 streak into Sunday.
  • 🔥 Ty Gibbs — No worse than sixth in five straight races.
  • ❄️ Ross Chastain — No better than 16th in his last five outings.
  • ❄️ AJ Allmendinger — Just one Top 20 in his last four overall.

Track breakdown: What wins at Bristol Motor Speedway?

Bristol Motor Speedway chews up tires, so managing them is crucial. It's also imperative to maintain track position, and have a car that can manage dirty air with lapped traffic typically playing a role in the outcome.

  • The top part of the turns at Bristol tend to gather "marbles," or pieces of tire, as the race goes on. Avoiding the marbles and hugging the bottom lane is a must.
  • Pit road is tricky to navigate, so pay attention to who qualifies well and gets better pit road stall choices.

Key stats & driver profiles to target

  • Back-to-back wins are not an uncommon sight at Bristol. Three active drivers have accomplished the feat; Kyle Busch (2009 and again in 2017-18), Brad Keselowski (2011-12), and Kyle Larson (2024-25). 
  • More than half of the NASCAR Cup Series winners at Bristol Motor Speedway have started in the Top 5 (74 wins, 58.3%), and more than 75% have started in the Top 10.

Drivers to watch

  • Kyle Larson has burned a lot of money since his last win at Kansas in May 2025, but this is one of his better tracks.
  • Tyler Reddick leads the Cup Series in average starting position (7.4), with Ryan Blaney in second (8.7).

Odds movement & market notes

  • Ryan Blaney vaulted into the favorite's role (+650 to +350) after winning the pole.
  • Carson Hocevar (+2800 to +1100) has seen a ton of action after qualifying Top 10.

Outright picks: Winners to bet

Pick 1: Denny Hamlin to win (+550)

It's hard to knock Hamlin's short-track form.

  • Track Fit: Tops in average rating at short tracks last four years.
  • Recent Form: Won at Vegas, led 292 laps at Martinsville in last three weeks.
  • Market Value: Shouldn't be longer than the chilly Larson.

Risk: Lost the war late at Martinsville in a shorter race.

Pick 2: Chase Briscoe to win (+1400)

Has shaken off a rough start to '26.

  • Track Fit: Three straight Top 10s here.
  • Recent Form: Top 15 in three straight overall.
  • Market Value: Playable down to +1000.

Risk: Has never won a short-track race at this level.


Best Top 5 bets

Pick 1: Ryan Blaney to finish Top 5 (-110)

Despite pit road issues, Blaney remains a force each week.

  • Track Fit: Has averaged a Top 5 in last three trips here.
  • Recent Form: Second in the points standings.
  • Market Value: Much more appetizing than Larson at -175.

Risk: Blaney's pit crew is outside the Top 25.

Pick 2: Christopher Bell to finish Top 5 (+110)

Aims to make it two straight at Bristol.

  • Track Fit: No worse than 10th in six straight trips here.
  • Recent Form: Seventh or better in four of last five overall.
  • Market Value: Playable down to -110.

Risk: Has not won yet this year.


Best matchup & head-to-head bets

Pick 1: William Byron (+130) over Ty Gibbs

Gibbs is hot, but this price on Byron is more than fair.

  • Matchup Advantage: Byron has been just as solid as Gibbs lately, but with less fanfare.
  • Key Stat: Gibbs has never won at this level.

Risk: Gibbs seems long overdue for a breakthrough.


Best Top 10 parlay

Christopher Bell

Chase Briscoe

William Byron

Bell and Byron are two of the most consistent drivers in the sport, while Briscoe is rounding into form. This price is more than generous.


How to watch the Food City 500

Location: Bristol Motor Speedway, Bristol, TN
Date: Sunday, April 12, 2026
Start time: 3:00 p.m. ET
TV: FS1

Check out the full weekend schedule for the 2026 Food City 500.


Bristol Motor Speedway weather

It will be a weekend-high 80 degrees at Bristol on Sunday, with light winds and a virtually nil chance of rain ruining proceedings. 


Previous Food City 500 winners

Year Winner Manufacturer
2025 Kyle Larson Chevrolet
2024 Denny Hamlin Toyota
2023* Christopher Bell Toyota
2022* Kyle Busch Toyota
2021* Joey Logano Ford

*denotes race was contested on dirt rather than concrete.


Food City 500 betting FAQ

When is the 2026 Food City 500?

The Food City 500 will be held on Sunday, April 12, 2026 at 3:00 p.m. ET.

Where will the 2026 Food City 500 be held?

Bristol Motor Speedway in Bristol, TN will be the site for the Food City 500.

Who is the 2026 Food City 500 favorite?

Ryan Blaney is the +350 betting favorite to win the Food City 500

Who won the Food City 500 last year?

Kyle Larson took last year's rendition of the Food City 500.

How do Food City 500 prop bets work?

You can wager on drivers to finish in the Top 3, 5, or 10 in the Food City 500, or seek out driver vs. driver matchup props.

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Robert Criscola - Covers.com
Betting Analyst

Robert M. Criscola’s road to becoming a Covers publishing editor began with an internship at Metro New York, which eventually turned into a freelance job at MetroBet covering many sports from a wagering angle, including horse racing. He continued to focus on “The Sport of Kings” by writing for shapperdacapper.com, danonymousracing.com, and informer.fanxt.com before joining the team at the TwinSpires Edge in 2019 as a regular contributor and weekend editor. “Crisco” began writing game previews for Covers in 2022 and joined the editing team in 2023.

His best advice for sports bettors? Bet with your head, not over it.

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