The New York Yankees and Kansas City Royals will get a four-game series going this evening.
It's a short turnaround for New York after a Sunday Night Baseball win over the Los Angeles Dodgers. In addition, it'll be New York's seventh game in seven days in a stretch, and they'll end up playing 14 straight days without rest.
How does the lack of rest factor into my Yankees vs Royals prediction? My MLB picks for Monday, June 10 will tell you.
Yankees vs Royals prediction
My best bet
Over 8.5 (-112 at FanDuel)
My analysis
Tonight, we have two pitchers with impressive numbers for the season, but the metrics behind them scream that they are due for some negative regression.
Carlos Rodon will take the mound for the New York Yankees and has had an excellent season this year.
He's allowed more than three earned runs just once, and it came against the Baltimore Orioles. However, there's a caveat of some of the underlying metrics not being as kind to Rondon as the actual results. An expected ERA that's an entire run higher than the actual ERA stands out. As does his hard-hit and barrel rates, both are in the bottom 25% of baseball.
Though the Kansas City Royals don't have as impressive numbers as the O's in the two metrics mentioned above, they are comparable. Thus, they can repeat a similar outing against Rondon and knock him up. The Royals are 8th in barrel rate and 8th in hard-hit rate. It's a natural strength vs. weakness that I think Kansas City can exploit.
Conversely, we have Seth Lugo taking the mound for the Royals. His story is similar to his counterpart, where the actual results are followed by underlying metrics that say these performances aren't sustainable.
Over the last 14 days, the Yankees are 4th in baseball in wRC+ against right-handed pitching. Of course, it takes a dip without the services of Juan Soto, but there's still enough power in this lineup to punish Lugo. The story here remains the same for the Yankees most of the season until something changes. You must induce soft contact if you want to succeed against its lineup. Unfortunately for the Royals, Lugo doesn't do that. I expect runs on both sides tonight.
Yankees vs Royals same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 8.5
Carlos Rodon Under 5.5 strikeouts
We're running a semi-correlated same-game parlay with today's best bet and pairing Rodon Under 5.5 strikeouts. I don't expect Rodon to go too deep into this game, which is a cornerstone of this handicap, but, in addition, this is a Royals team that doesn't swing and miss a ton. Its chase contact rate is 3rd in baseball, and its contact rate, overall, is 4th in baseball. This number is just too high with those things in the foreground.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Yankees vs Royals odds
Yankees vs Royals live odds
Yankees vs Royals opening odds
- Run line: New York -1.5 (+128) | Kansas City +1.5 (-154)
- Moneyline: New York -130 | Kansas City +110
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5
Yankees vs Royals spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Yankees have dominated this head-to-head series as winners of seven of its last ten games against the Royals.
- With a record of 5-5 in its last ten games, bettors are up +.66 units on Kansas City in that stretch.
- With a record of 8-2 in its last ten games, bettors are up +4.2 units on New York in that stretch.
- Money has been relatively even early in this betting market, with the Yankees taking 52% of it at the time of publication.
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Yankees vs Royals trend
The New York Yankees have hit the Run Line in 26 of their last 36 games (+20.35 Units / 47% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Royals
Yankees vs Royals game info
| Location: | Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City, MO |
| Date: | Monday, 6-10-2024 |
| First pitch: | 8:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | YES, Bally Sports Kansas City |
| Yankees starting pitcher: | Carlos Rodon (8-2, 3.08 ERA) |
| Royals starting pitcher: | Seth Lugo (9-1, 2.13 ERA) |
Yankees vs Royals latest injuries
Yankees vs Royals weather
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